Cumulative impacts to global marine ecosystems projected to more than double by mid-century

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Halpern, Benjamin S.; Frazier, Melanie; O'Hara, Casey C.; Vargas-Fonseca, O. Alejandra; Lombard, Amanda T.
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Nelson Mandela University
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-10693
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adv2906
• 发表日期: 2025-09-18
• 页码: 1216-1219
• 关键词: primary production decline; fisheries management; ocean acidification; CLIMATE-CHANGE; MODEL; temperature; governance; nutrient; index; catch

摘要

Pressures from human activities are expected to increase substantially, affecting marine ecosystems globally. To plan for a sustainable future, we need to forecast the distributions of cumulative effects from multiple pressures. Here, we mapped (at 10-kilometer resolution) the future cumulative impacts of 10 climate, land-based, fishing, and other pressures on 20 marine habitats under two climate scenarios at mid-century (around 2050). We found that cumulative impacts are projected to increase 2.2 to 2.6 times globally, with coastal habitats facing higher impacts but offshore regions facing faster increases, especially in equatorial regions. Furthermore, many countries dependent on marine resources will have large increases in impacts. Incorporating these results into strategic policy and management will support more sustainable use and protection of marine ecosystems and the services they provide.