Genomic demography predicts community dynamics in a temperate montane forest

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: O'Dwyer, James P.; Lutz, James A.; Schappe, Tyler; Alegre, Dana; Black, Andrew N.; Grunwald, Niklaus J.; Jones, F. Andrew
• 署名单位: University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; Utah System of Higher Education; Utah State University; Oregon State University; Duke University; Oregon State University; United States Department of Agriculture (USDA); Smithsonian Institution; Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-9301
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adu6396
• 发表日期: 2025-09-18
• 关键词: effective population-size; within-generation variance; fast-slow continuum; environmental stochasticity; Linkage Disequilibrium; natural-selection; neutral-theory; TREE; HISTORY; EVOLUTION

摘要

Species population sizes fluctuate over time, and these temporal dynamics play a key role in governing the maintenance of biodiversity. Although modeling approaches have been developed to characterize fluctuations in species abundances, the data required to parameterize these models from scratch are substantial. Here we introduce a new approach to modeling population fluctuations on decadal timescales by relating community-level dynamics to population-level patterns encoded in plant genomes. Using genomic samples taken at a single time point to generate contemporary effective population size estimates in a temperate montane forest, we accurately predict fluctuations across three censuses. Our approach facilitates the use of genomic demography to parameterize multispecies community models in ecology and shows that population genomic data can provide accurate predictions for ecological dynamics.