Methane emissions from the Nord Stream subsea pipeline leaks

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Harris, Stephen J.; Schwietzke, Stefan; France, James L.; Velandia Salinas, Nataly; Meixus Fernandez, Tania; Randles, Cynthia; Guanter, Luis; Irakulis-Loitxate, Itziar; Calcan, Andreea; Aben, Ilse; Abrahamsson, Katarina; Balcombe, Paul; Berchet, Antoine; Biddle, Louise C.; Bittig, Henry C.; Boettcher, Christian; Bouvard, Timo; Brostroem, Goeran; Bruch, Valentin; Cassiani, Massimo; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Ciais, Philippe; Damm, Ellen; Dammers, Enrico; Denier van der Gon, Hugo; Dogniaux, Matthieu; Dowd, Emily; Dupouy, Francois; Eckhardt, Sabine; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Feng, Wuhu; Jia, Mengwei; Jiang, Fei; Kaiser-Weiss, Andrea K.; Kamoun, Ines; Kerridge, Brian J.; Lampert, Astrid; Lana, Jose; Li, Fei; Maasakkers, Joannes D.; Maclean, Jean-Philippe W.; Mamtimin, Buhalqem; Marshall, Julia; Mauger, Gedeon; Mekkas, Anouar; Mielke, Christian; Mohrmann, Martin; Moore, David P.; Nanni, Riccardo; Paetzold, Falk; Pison, Isabelle; Pisso, Ignacio; Platt, Stephen M.; Prea, Raphael; Queste, Bastien Y.; Ramonet, Michel; Rehder, Gregor; Remedios, John J.; Reum, Friedemann; Roiger, Anke; Schmidbauer, Norbert; Siddans, Richard; Sunkisala, Anusha; Thompson, Rona L.; Varon, Daniel J.; Ventress, Lucy J.; Wilson, Chris; Zhang, Yuzhong
• 署名单位: University of London; Royal Holloway University London; Universitat Politecnica de Valencia; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; University of Gothenburg; University of London; Queen Mary University London; Universite Paris Saclay; CEA; Leibniz Institut fur Ostseeforschung Warnemunde; Universite Paris Saclay; CEA; NILU; University of Leeds; University of Leeds; Helmholtz Association; Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar & Marine Research; Netherlands Organization Applied Science Research; University of Leeds; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); NERC National Centre for Atmospheric Science; Nanjing University; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Science & Technology Facilities Council (STFC); STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Science & Technology Facilities Council (STFC); STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory; Braunschweig University of Technology; Helmholtz Association; German Aerospace Centre (DLR); University of Leicester; University of Leicester; Harvard University; Westlake University
• 刊物名称: Nature
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0028-1197
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08396-8
• 发表日期: 2025-01-30
• 关键词: satellite-observations; atmospheric methane; point sources; cathare code; gas leak; FRAMEWORK; MODEL; state; v1.0; iasi

摘要

The amount of methane released to the atmosphere from the Nord Stream subsea pipeline leaks remains uncertain, as reflected in a wide range of estimates1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17-18. A lack of information regarding the temporal variation in atmospheric emissions has made it challenging to reconcile pipeline volumetric (bottom-up) estimates1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7-8 with measurement-based (top-down) estimates8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17-18. Here we simulate pipeline rupture emission rates and integrate these with methane dissolution and sea-surface outgassing estimates9,10 to model the evolution of atmospheric emissions from the leaks. We verify our modelled atmospheric emissions by comparing them with top-down point-in-time emission-rate estimates and cumulative emission estimates derived from airborne11, satellite8,12, 13-14 and tall tower data. We obtain consistency between our modelled atmospheric emissions and top-down estimates and find that 465 +/- 20 thousand metric tons of methane were emitted to the atmosphere. Although, to our knowledge, this represents the largest recorded amount of methane released from a single transient event, it is equivalent to 0.1% of anthropogenic methane emissions for 2022. The impact of the leaks on the global atmospheric methane budget brings into focus the numerous other anthropogenic methane sources that require mitigation globally. Our analysis demonstrates that diverse, complementary measurement approaches are needed to quantify methane emissions in support of the Global Methane Pledge19.