High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Tramblay, Yves; Reig, Fergus; Gonzalez-Hidalgo, Jose C.; Begueria, Santiago; Brunetti, Michele; Kalin, Ksenija Cindric; Patalen, Leonardo; Krzic, Aleksandra; Lionello, Piero; Lima, Miguel M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; El-Kenawy, Ahmed M.; Eddenjal, Ali; Turkes, Murat; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Manara, Veronica; Maugeri, Maurizio; Badi, Wafae; Mathbout, Shifa; Bertalanic, Renato; Bocheva, Lilia; Dabanli, Ismail; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Sahabi-Abed, Salah; Abdulla, Fayez; Fayad, Abbas; Hodzic, Sabina; Ivanov, Mirjana; Radevski, Ivan; Pena-Angulo, Dhais; Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge; Dominguez-Castro, Fernando; Gimeno-Sotelo, Luis; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Franquesa, Magi; Halifa-Marin, Amar; Adell-Michavila, Maria; Noguera, Ivan; Barriopedro, David; Garrido-Perez, Jose M.; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Andres-Martin, Miguel; Gimeno, Luis; Nieto, Raquel; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Markonis, Yannis; Selmi, Rabeb; Ben Rached, Soumaya; Radovanovic, Slavica; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Ribes, Aurelien; Saidi, Mohamed Elmehdi; Bataineh, Siham; El Khalki, El Mahdi; Robaa, Sayed; Boucetta, Amina; Alsafadi, Karam; Mamassis, Nikos; Mohammed, Safwan; Fernandez-Duque, Beatriz; Cheval, Sorin; Moutia, Sara; Stevkov, Aleksandra; Stevkova, Silvana; Luna, M. Yolanda; Potopova, Vera
• 署名单位: Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Instituto Pirenaico de Ecologia (IPE); University of Zaragoza; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); Universite de Montpellier; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); University of Zaragoza; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR); Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima (ISAC-CNR); University of Salento; Universidade de Lisboa; Egyptian Knowledge Bank (EKB); Mansoura University; Bogazici University; Technical University of Crete; University of Milan; European University Cyprus; University of Barcelona; Istanbul Technical University; Meteo France; Jordan University of Science & Technology; University of Saskatchewan; Saints Cyril & Methodius University of Skopje; Universidad de La Rioja; Universidade de Lisboa; Universidade de Lisboa; Universidade de Vigo; Complutense University of Madrid; Complutense University of Madrid; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC-UCM - Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO); UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH); Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); University of Valencia; CSIC-GV-UV - Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificacion (CIDE); Universidade de Vigo; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); University of Barcelona; Czech University of Life Sciences Prague; Meteo France; Universite de Toulouse; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Cadi Ayyad University of Marrakech; Mohammed VI Polytechnic University; Egyptian Knowledge Bank (EKB); Cairo University; Xiamen University; National Technical University of Athens; University of Debrecen; Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET); Czech University of Life Sciences Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Global Change Research Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences
• 刊物名称: Nature
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0028-1087
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08576-6
• 发表日期: 2025-03-20
• 关键词: north-atlantic oscillation; CLIMATE-CHANGE; increased frequency; homogeneity test; temperature data; region; cmip5; uncertainty; DYNAMICS; index

摘要

State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future1. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation2, 3-4, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences3,5. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns6,7 maintaining stationarity over the long term8,9. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world's prominent climate change hotspots10.