Global evolution of inflammatory bowel disease across epidemiologic stages

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hracs, Lindsay; Windsor, Joseph W.; Gorospe, Julia; Cummings, Michael; Coward, Stephanie; Buie, Michael J.; Quan, Joshua; Goddard, Quinn; Caplan, Lea; Markovinovic, Ante; Williamson, Tyler; Abbey, Yvonne; Abdullah, Murdani; Abreu, Maria T.; Ahuja, Vineet; Raja Ali, Raja Affendi; Altuwaijri, Mansour; Balderramo, Domingo; Banerjee, Rupa; Benchimol, Eric I.; Bernstein, Charles N.; Brunet-Mas, Eduard; Burisch, Johan; Chong, Vui Heng; Dotan, Iris; Dutta, Usha; El Ouali, Sara; Forbes, Angela; Forss, Anders; Gearry, Richard; Dao, Viet Hang; Hartono, Juanda Leo; Hilmi, Ida; Hodges, Phoebe; Jones, Gareth-Rhys; Juliao-Banos, Fabian; Kaibullayeva, Jamilya; Kelly, Paul; Kobayashi, Taku; Kotze, Paulo Gustavo; Lakatos, Peter L.; Lees, Charlie W.; Limsrivilai, Julajak; Lo, Bobby; Loftus, Edward V.; Ludvigsson, Jonas F.; Mak, Joyce W. Y.; Miao, Yinglei; Ng, Ka Kei; Okabayashi, Shinji; Olen, Ola; Panaccione, Remo; Paudel, Mukesh Sharma; Quaresma, Abel Botelho; Rubin, David T.; Simadibrata, Marcellus; Sun, Yang; Suzuki, Hidekazu; Toro, Martin; Turner, Dan; Iade, Beatriz; Wei, Shu Chen; Yamamoto-Furusho, Jesus K.; Yang, Suk-Kyun; Ng, Siew C.; Kaplan, Gilaad G.
• 署名单位: University of Calgary; University of Calgary; University of Indonesia; Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo National Public Hospital; Cedars Sinai Medical Center; Stockholm School of Economics; All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) New Delhi; Sunway University; King Saud University; Hospital Privado - Universitario de Cordoba; University of Toronto; Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids); University of Toronto; University of Toronto; Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids); University of Toronto; University of Manitoba; CIBER - Centro de Investigacion Biomedica en Red; CIBEREHD; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Autonomous University of Barcelona; University of Copenhagen; Tel Aviv University; Sackler Faculty of Medicine; Rabin Medical Center; Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education & Research (PGIMER), Chandigarh; Cleveland Clinic Foundation; Cleveland Clinic Foundation; University of Otago; Karolinska Institutet; Hanoi Medical University; National University of Singapore; National University of Singapore; Universiti Malaya; University of London; Queen Mary University London; University of Zambia; University of Edinburgh; Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University; Kitasato University; Kitasato University; McGill University; Semmelweis University; University of Edinburgh; Mahidol University; Mayo Clinic; Orebro University; Chinese University of Hong Kong; Kyoto University; Karolinska Institutet; Universidade do Oeste de Santa Catarina; University of Chicago; Tokai University; Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Shaare Zedek Medical Center; National Taiwan University; National Taiwan University Hospital; University of Ulsan; Asan Medical Center; Chinese University of Hong Kong; Chinese University of Hong Kong
• 刊物名称: Nature
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0028-1163
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08940-0
• 发表日期: 2025-06-12
• 关键词: 2023 impact; crohns-disease; PREVALENCE; canada; time; ibd

摘要

During the twentieth century, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) was considered a disease of early industrialized regions in North America, Europe and Oceania1. At the turn of the twenty-first century, IBD incidence increased in newly industrialized and emerging regions in Africa, Asia and Latin America, while the prevalence in early industrialized regions continued to grow steadily2, 3-4. Changes in the incidence and prevalence denote the evolution of IBD across four epidemiologic stages: stage 1 (emergence), characterized by low incidence and prevalence; stage 2 (acceleration in incidence), marked by rapidly rising incidence and low prevalence; and stage 3 (compounding prevalence), where the incidence decelerates, plateaus or declines while the prevalence steadily increases. A fourth stage (prevalence equilibrium) has been proposed in which the prevalence slope plateaus due to demographic shifts in an ageing IBD population, but it has not yet been evidenced. To date, these stages have remained theoretical, lacking specific numerical indicators to define transition points. Here, using real-world data from 522 population-based studies encompassing 82 global regions and spanning more than a century (1920-2024), we show spatiotemporal transitions across stages 1-3 and model stage 4 progression. Understanding the evolution of IBD across epidemiologic stages enables healthcare systems to better anticipate the future worldwide burden of IBD.