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作者：de Pleijt, Alexandra; Nuvolari, Alessandro; Weisdorf, Jacob
作者单位：University of Oxford; Utrecht University; Queens University Belfast; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna; University of Southern Denmark
摘要：We examine the effect of technical change on human capital formation during England's Industrial Revolution. Using the number of steam engines installed by 1800 as a synthetic indicator of technological change and occupational statistics to measure working skills (using HISCLASS), we establish a positive correlation between the use of steam engines and the share of skilled workers at the county level. We use exogenous variation in carboniferous rock strata (containing coal to fuel the engines)...
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作者：Levchenko, Andrei A.; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：We propose a novel identification scheme for a nontechnology business cycle shock, which we label sentiment. This is a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks that maximize the short-run forecast error variance of an expectational variable, alternatively a GDP forecast or a consumer confidence index. We then estimate the international transmission of three identified shocks-surprise TFP, news of future TFP, and sentiment-from the United States to Canada. The US sentiment sh...
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作者：Bhalotra, Sonia; Clarke, Damian
作者单位：University of Essex; Universidad de Santiago de Chile
摘要：Twin births are often used as an instrument to address selection of women into fertility. However, recent work shows selection of women into twin birth such that, while OLS estimates tend to be downward biased, twin-IV estimates will tend to be upward biased. This is pertinent given the emerging consensus that fertility has limited impacts on women's labour supply, or on investments in children. Using data for developing countries and the United States to estimate the trade-off between fertili...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Wolitzky, Alexander
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We introduce the possibility of coercive punishment by specialized enforcers into a model of community enforcement. We assume that, just as regular agents need to be given incentives to cooperate with each other, specialized enforcers need to be given incentives to carry out costly punishments. We fully characterize optimal equilibria in the model. When the specialized enforcement technology is sufficiently effective, cooperation is best sustained by a one-time enforcer punishment equilibrium,...
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作者：Bennett, Patrick; Ouazad, Amine
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal
摘要：This paper estimates the individual impact of a worker's job loss on his/her criminal activity. Using a matched employer-employee longitudinal data set on unemployment, crime, and taxes for all residents in Denmark, the paper builds each worker's timeline of job separation, unemployment, and crime. The paper focuses on displaced workers: high-tenure workers who lose employment during a mass-layoff event at any point between 1990 and 1994 (inclusive). Controlling for municipality-and time-speci...
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作者：Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus; Koester, Mats
作者单位：Frankfurt School Finance & Management
摘要：Whether people seek or avoid risks on gambling, insurance, asset, or labor markets crucially depends on the skewness of the underlying probability distribution. In fact, people typically seek positively skewed risks and avoid negatively skewed risks. We show that salience theory of choice under risk can explain this preference for positive skewness, because unlikely, but outstanding payoffs attract attention. In contrast to alternative models, however, salience theory predicts that choices und...
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作者：Mengus, Eric; Pancrazi, Roberto
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; University of Warwick
摘要：In this paper, we propose a model of endogenous partial insurance and we investigate its implications for macroeconomic outcomes, such as wealth inequality, asset accumulation, interest rate, and consumption smoothing. To this end, we include participation costs to state-contingent asset markets into an otherwise standard Aiyagari (1994) model. We highlight the resulting nonmonotonic relationship between wealth and insurance-market participation when insurance is costly. Poor households remain...
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作者：Jehiel, Philippe; Lamy, Laurent
作者单位：Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole des Ponts ParisTech; Paris School of Economics; University of London; University College London; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole des Ponts ParisTech
摘要：Set-aside programs that consist in forbidding access to specific participants are commonly used in procurement auctions. We show that when the set of potential participants is composed of an incumbent (whose entry costs are already sunk) and of entrants who show up endogenously (in such a way that their expected rents are fixed by outside options), then it is always beneficial for revenues to exclude the incumbent in the Vickrey auction. This exclusion principle is generalized to dominant-stra...
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作者：Devereux, Michael B.; Hnatkovska, Viktoria V.
作者单位：University of British Columbia
摘要：Models of risk-sharing predict that relative consumption growth rates are positively related to changes in real exchange rates. We investigate this hypothesis using a new multicountry and multiregional data set. Within countries, we find evidence for risk-sharing: episodes of high relative regional consumption growth are associated with regional real exchange rate depreciation. Across countries, however, the association is reversed: relative consumption and real exchange rates are negatively c...
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作者：Lieli, Robert P.; Nieto-Barthaburu, Augusto
作者单位：Central European University; Universidad Nacional de Tucuman
摘要：We study the existence of equilibria and the information content of prices in futures markets where the probability of future payoffs can be altered by an intervening agent who acts in response to the market price, hence creating a feedback effect. We focus on the market with the simplest possible structure: traders betting on the occurrence of a future event by buying or selling Arrow-Debreu securities (one dollar claims contingent on a binary outcome). We find that in the presence of feedbac...
