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作者：Becker, Sascha O.; Ferrara, Andreas; Melander, Eric; Pascali, Luigi
作者单位：Monash University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; University of Birmingham; Luiss Guido Carli University; Pompeu Fabra University
摘要：We provide causal evidence for the role of warfare in the development of medieval constitutionalism. Using novel data on the universe of German cities between 1290 and 1710, we show that military conflicts led to city councils that were larger, more likely to be elected by citizens, and more likely to include representatives of craft guilds. Additionally, these conflicts resulted in a substantial increase in local fiscal and spending capacity. We exploit the gender of the firstborn children of...
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作者：Enke, Benjamin; Graeber, Thomas; Oprea, Ryan
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard University; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
摘要：A large literature shows that people's valuation of delayed financial rewards violates exponential discounting, exhibiting a hyperbolic pattern: high short-run impatience that strongly decreases in the length of the delay. We test the hypothesis that the hyperbolic pattern in measured discount rates over money reflects mistakes driven by the complexity of evaluating delayed payoffs. We document that hyperbolicity (i) is strongly associated with choice inconsistency and cognitive uncertainty, (...
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作者：Brey, Bjorn
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：This paper examines the benefits of first-mover advantages in technology adoption. It documents that the early adoption of electricity across late 19th-century Switzerland was conducive to local economic development not just in the short run but also in the long run. By exploiting exogenous variation in waterpower potential, alongside rapid advancements in power transmission technology, these findings can be interpreted as causal. The main mechanism through which differences in economic develo...
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作者：Fuest, Clemens; Greil, Stefan; Hugger, Felix; Neumeier, Florian
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich
摘要：We use micro data from country-by-country reports of more than 3,600 multinational companies to analyze global profit shifting to avoid taxes. Unlike other data sets, country-by-country reports provide detailed information about the global economic activities of multinational companies, including those in tax haven countries. We find that these companies reduce their tax burden by 39 billion per year by shifting profits to low-tax countries. Extrapolating our results to the universe of large m...
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作者：Kwan, Simon; Ulate, Mauricio; Voutilainen, Ville
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Bank of Finland
摘要：Despite the implementation of negative nominal interest rates by several advanced economies in the last decade, there is still much we do not know about the effectiveness of this instrument. In this paper, we analyze the pass-through of the European Central Bank's changes in the deposit facility rate to mortgage rates in Finland between 2005 and 2020. We use monthly data and three different empirical methodologies: event studies, high-frequency identification, and exposure-measure regressions....
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作者：Exler, Florian; Livshits, Igor; Macgee, James; Tertilt, Michele
作者单位：University of Vienna; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Bank of Canada; University of Mannheim
摘要：Do cognitive biases call for regulation to limit the use of credit? We incorporate over-optimistic and rational borrowers into an incomplete markets model with consumer bankruptcy. Over-optimists face worse income risk but incorrectly believe they are rational. Thus, both types behave identically. Lenders price loans forming beliefs-type scores-about borrower types. This gives rise to a tractable theory of type scoring. As lenders cannot screen types, borrowers are partially pooled. Over-optim...
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作者：Netzer, Nick; Robson, Arthur; Steiner, Jakub; Kocourek, Pavel
作者单位：University of Zurich; Simon Fraser University; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Charles University Prague; University of Duisburg Essen
摘要：In a model inspired by neuroscience, we study choice between lotteries as a process of encoding and decoding noisy perceptual signals. The implications of this process for behavior depend on the decision-maker's understanding of risk. When the aggregation of perceptual signals is coarse, encoding and decoding generate behavioral risk attitudes even for vanishing perceptual noise. We show that the optimal encoding of lottery rewards is S-shaped and that low-probability events are optimally over...
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作者：Avdeenko, Alexandra; Froelich, Markus
作者单位：The World Bank; University of Mannheim
摘要：A significant component of the cost of climate change is the investment required for adaptation programs. Effective adaptation strategies are becoming essential for managing the negative economic impacts of climate change. In this study, we estimate climate change damage costs that incorporate adaptation costs and benefits under different environmental scenarios. Over a 3-year period, we tracked households in rural Sindh, some of which experienced extreme monsoon flooding in 2016. We present h...
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作者：Enke, Benjamin; Polborn, Mattias K.; Wu, Alex A.
作者单位：Harvard University; Vanderbilt University; University of Cologne; Harvard University
摘要：Motivated by novel survey evidence, we develop a theory of political behavior in which the relative weight voters place on values rather than material considerations increases in income. The model unifies several stylized facts about US politics and makes new predictions. The luxury goods idea implies-and two datasets confirm-that rich moral liberals are considerably more likely to vote against their economic interests than poor moral conservatives, cautioning against the common narrative that...
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作者：Pappada, Francesco; Rogoff, Kenneth S.
作者单位：Universita Ca Foscari Venezia; Paris School of Economics; Harvard University
摘要：This paper offers a new approach to measuring the size of the informal economy based on VAT data for the European Union. Although data intensive, our evading value added duty economy (EVADE) measure is simpler and more transparent than existing measures. EVADE also shows more variation across countries of Europe than earlier measures, including higher informality in Greece, Italy, and Spain, for example. Moreover, we find considerably higher variation within countries across time; in a cross-c...
