-
作者：Foerster, Andrew; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Waggoner, Daniel F.; Zha, Tao
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (MSDSGE) modeling has become a growing body of literature on economic and policy issues related to structural shifts. This paper develops a general perturbation methodology for constructing high-order approximations to the solutions of MSDSGE models. Our new method-the partition perturbation method-partitions the Markov-switching parameter space to keep a maximum number of time-varying parameters from perturbation. For this method to work...
-
作者：Gorry, Aspen
作者单位：Utah System of Higher Education; Utah State University
摘要：This paper studies the role of worker learning in a labor market where workers have incomplete information about the quality of their employment match. The amount of information about the quality of a new match depends on a worker's past job experience. Allowing workers to learn from experience generates a decline in job finding probabilities with age that is consistent with patterns found in the data. Moreover, workers with more past experience will on average have less wage volatility on new...
-
作者：Kline, Brendan; Tamer, Elie
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Harvard University
摘要：This paper develops a Bayesian approach to inference in a class of partially identified econometric models. Models in this class are characterized by a known mapping between a point identified reduced-form parameter mu and the identified set for a partially identified parameter theta. The approach maps posterior inference about mu to various posterior inference statements concerning the identified set for theta, without the specification of a prior for theta. Many posterior inference statement...
-
作者：Arcidiacono, Peter; Beauchamp, Andrew; McElroy, Marjorie
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Ohio; Wright State University Dayton
摘要：We develop a two-sided directed search model of relationship formation that can be used to disentangle male and female preferences over partner characteristics and over relationship terms from only a cross section of observed matches. Individuals direct their search for a partner on the basis of (i) the terms of the relationship, (ii) the partners' characteristics, and (iii) the endogenously determined probability of matching. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Healt...
-
作者：Kline, Brendan
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：This paper develops a strategy for identification and estimation of complete information games that does not require a regressor that has large support or a parametric specification for the distribution of the unobservables. The identification result uses a nonstandard but plausible condition on the unobservables: the assumption that the joint density of the unobservables of all agents is unimodal in the sense of achieving the global maximum at a unique point. Also, a three-step semiparametric...
-
作者：Otsu, Taisuke; Pesendorfer, Martin; Takahashi, Yuya
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：This paper proposes several statistical tests for finite state Markov games to examine whether data from distinct markets can be pooled. We formulate homogeneity tests of (i) the conditional choice and state transition probabilities, (ii) the steady-state distribution, and (iii) the conditional state distribution given an initial state. The null hypotheses of these homogeneity tests are necessary conditions (or maintained assumptions) for poolability of the data. Thus rejections of these null ...
-
作者：Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan; Matthes, Christian; Wang, Mu-Chun
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; University of Hamburg
摘要：How much have the dynamics of U.S. time series changed over the last century? Has the evolution of the Federal Reserve as an institution over the 100 years altered the transmission of monetary policy shocks? To tackle these questions, we build a multivariate time series model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility that features measurement errors in observables. We find substantial changes in the structure of the economy. There is also large variation in the impact of monetary ...
