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作者：Bruns, Martin; Piffer, Michele
作者单位：University of East Anglia; University of London; King's College London
摘要：We develop an importance sampler for sign restricted Bayesian structural vector autoregressive models. The algorithm nests as a special case the sampler associated with the popular Normal inverse Wishart Uniform prior, while allowing to move beyond such prior in medium sized models. We then propose a prior on contemporaneous impulse responses that provides flexibility on the magnitude and shape of the impact responses. We illustrate the quantitative relevance of the choice of the prior in an a...
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作者：Hakimov, Rustamdjan; Kuebler, Dorothea; Pan, Siqi
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Technical University of Berlin; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Melbourne
摘要：When applying to a university, students and their parents devote considerable time acquiring information about university programs in order to form preferences. We explore ways to reduce wasteful information acquisition, that is, to help students avoid acquiring information about out-of-reach schools or universities, using a market design approach. Focusing on markets where students are ranked by universities based on exam scores, we find that, both theoretically and experimentally, a sequenti...
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作者：Chew, Soo Hong; Miao, Bin; Zhong, Songfa
作者单位：Southwestern University of Finance & Economics - China; National University of Singapore; Renmin University of China; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi
摘要：Keynes (1921) and Ellsberg (1961) have articulated an aversion toward betting on an urn containing balls of two colors of unknown proportion to one with a 50-50 composition. Keynes views this as reflecting different preferences for bets arising from different sources of uncertainty. Ellsberg describes this as weighting the priors arising from the unknown urn pessimistically. In two experiments, we observe substantial links between attitude toward almost-objective uncertainty and attitudes towa...
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作者：Bugni, Federico A.; Li, Jia; Li, Qiyuan
作者单位：Northwestern University; Singapore Management University
摘要：We propose using a permutation test to detect discontinuities in an underlying economic model at a known cutoff point. Relative to the existing literature, we show that this test is well suited for event studies based on time-series data. The test statistic measures the distance between the empirical distribution functions of observed data in two local subsamples on the two sides of the cutoff. Critical values are computed via a standard permutation algorithm. Under a high-level condition that...
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作者：Madsen, Jakob; Strulik, Holger
作者单位：University of Western Australia; University of Gottingen
摘要：A core mechanism of unified growth theory is that accelerating technological progress induces mass education and, through interaction with child quantity-quality substitution, a decline in fertility. Using unique new data for 21 OECD countries over the period 1750-2000, we test, for the first time, the validity of this core mechanism of unified growth theory. We measure a country's technological progress as patents per capita, R&D intensity, and investment in machinery, equipment, and intellec...
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作者：Cooper, Russell W.; Schott, Immo
作者单位：European University Institute; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universite de Montreal
摘要：Capital reallocation between firms is procyclical and leads to variations in measured aggregate productivity. In this paper, we ask how much of the cyclical variation in measured productivity is the consequence of capital reallocation. We build a heterogeneous-firm model to study the effects of exogenous shocks to total factor productivity (TFP) and to the costs of reallocation. These shocks cause an endogenous cyclicality of measured aggregate productivity. Only a model driven by exogenous TF...
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作者：Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; Stanford University
摘要：We introduce a novel simulated certainty equivalent approximation (SCEQ) method for solving dynamic stochastic problems. Our examples show that SCEQ can quickly solve high-dimensional finite- or infinite-horizon, stationary or nonstationary dynamic stochastic problems with hundreds of state variables, a wide state space, and occasionally binding constraints. With the SCEQ method, a desktop computer will suffice for large problems, but it can also use parallel tools efficiently. The SCEQ method...
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作者：Backus, Peter; Cubel, Maria; Guid, Matej; Sanchez-Pages, Santiago; Manas, Enrique Lopez
作者单位：University of Manchester; University of Bath; University of Ljubljana; University of London; King's College London
摘要：This paper studies gender differences in performance in a male-dominated competitive environment chess tournaments. We find that the gender composition of chess games affects the behaviors of both men and women in ways that worsen the outcomes for women. Using a unique measure of within-game quality of play, we show that women make more mistakes when playing against men. Men, however, play equally well against male and female opponents. We also find that men persist longer before losing to wom...
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作者：Liu, Laura; Moon, Hyungsik Roger; Schorfheide, Frank
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; University of Southern California; Yonsei University; University of Pennsylvania; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We use a dynamic panel Tobit model with heteroskedasticity to generate forecasts for a large cross-section of short time series of censored observations. Our fully Bayesian approach allows us to flexibly estimate the cross-sectional distribution of heterogeneous coefficients and then implicitly use this distribution as prior to construct Bayes forecasts for the individual time series. In addition to density forecasts, we construct set forecasts that explicitly target the average coverage proba...
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作者：Kim, Jun Sung; Patacchini, Eleonora; Picard, Pierre M.; Zenou, Yves
作者单位：Sungkyunkwan University (SKKU); Bocconi University; Cornell University; University of Luxembourg; Universite Catholique Louvain; Monash University; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：This paper studies how the strength of social ties is affected by the geographical location of other individuals and their social capital. We characterize the equilibrium in terms of both social interactions and social capital. We show that lower travel costs increase not only the interaction frequency but also the social capital for all agents. We also show that the equilibrium frequency of interactions is lower than the efficient one. Using a unique geocoded data set of friendship networks a...
