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作者：Pakes, Ariel; Porter, Jack
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：This paper proposes a new approach to identification of the semiparametric multinomial choice model with fixed effects. The framework employed is the semiparametric version of the traditional multinomial logit with the fixed-effects model (Chamberlain (1980)). This semiparametric multinomial choice model places no restrictions on either the joint distribution of the random utility disturbances across choices or their within group (or across time) correlations. We show that a novel within-group...
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作者：Kendall, Chad; Oprea, Ryan
作者单位：University of Southern California; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We experimentally study how people form predictive models of simple data generating processes (DGPs), by showing subjects data sets and asking them to predict future outputs. We find that subjects: (i) often fail to predict in this task, indicating a failure to form a model, (ii) often cannot explicitly describe the model they have formed even when successful, and (iii) tend to be attracted to the same, simple models when multiple models fit the data. Examining a number of formal complexity me...
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作者：Chiappori, Pierre-Andre; Ciscato, Edoardo; Guerriero, Carla
作者单位：Columbia University; KU Leuven; University of Naples Federico II
摘要：Social scientists have long been interested in marital homogamy and its relationship with inequality. However, measuring homogamy is not straightforward, particularly when one is interested in assessing marital sorting based on multiple traits. In this paper, we argue that Separate Extreme Value (SEV) models not only generate a matching function with several desirable theoretical properties, but they are also suited for the study of multidimensional sorting. Specifically, we use rich small-sca...
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作者：Hintermaier, Thomas; Koeniger, Winfried
作者单位：University of Bonn; University of St Gallen; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI)
摘要：This paper quantifies mechanisms through which heterogeneity in household finances affects the transmission of monetary policy, considering housing tenure choices over the life cycle. Our analysis also identifies challenges for monetary policy related to housing busts. It focuses on the four largest economies in the euro area: France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Through the lens of our model, we find that home ownership and endogenous transitions from renting to owning are key elements for the ...
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作者：Hahn, Jinyong; Hughes, David W.; Kuersteiner, Guido; Newey, Whitney K.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Boston College; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Bias correction can often improve the finite sample performance of estimators. We show that the choice of bias correction method has no effect on the higher-order variance of semiparametrically efficient parametric estimators, so long as the estimate of the bias is asymptotically linear. It is also shown that bootstrap, jackknife, and analytical bias estimates are asymptotically linear for estimators with higher-order expansions of a standard form. In particular, we find that for a variety of ...
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作者：Arkhangelsky, Dmitry; Imbens, Guido W.; Lei, Lihua; Luo, Xiaoman
作者单位：Stanford University; Stanford University; University of Cambridge; Stanford University
摘要：We propose a new estimator for average causal effects of a binary treatment with panel data in settings with general treatment patterns. Our approach augments the popular two-way-fixed-effects specification with unit-specific weights that arise from a model for the assignment mechanism. We show how to construct these weights in various settings, including the staggered adoption setting, where units opt into the treatment sequentially but permanently. The resulting estimator converges to an ave...
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作者：Macera, Manuel; Tsujiyama, Hitoshi
作者单位：Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; University of Surrey
摘要：We study how technological change affects between- and within-education-group inequality in the United States. We develop a model with heterogeneous workers and firms in which the demand for skills is characterized by firms' recruiting behavior. We use the model to quantify the relative contribution of two types of technological change that affect the relative demand for skilled labor: technological change in firm-specific productivity and technological change in labor productivity. We find th...
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作者：Dovonon, Prosper; Gospodinov, Nikolay
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; Concordia University - Canada; Universite de Montreal; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of specification tests in conditional moment restriction models under first-order local identification failure with dependent data. More specifically, we obtain conditions under which the conventional specification test for conditional moment restrictions retains its standard normal limit when first-order local identification fails but global identification is still attainable. In the process, we derive some novel intermediate results that includ...
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作者：Gonzalez-Jimenez, Victor
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam
摘要：I show that stochastic contracts generate powerful incentives when agents suffer from probability distortion. When implementing these contracts, the principal can target probability distortions in order to inflate the agent's perceived benefits of exerting high levels of effort. This novel source of motivation is absent in contracts traditionally regarded as optimal. A theoretical framework and an experiment demonstrate that stochastic contracts implemented with small probabilities, which expo...
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作者：Bai, Yuehao; Liu, Jizhou; Tabord-Meehan, Max
作者单位：University of Southern California; University of Chicago; University of Chicago
摘要：This paper studies inference in randomized controlled trials with multiple treatments, where treatment status is determined according to a matched tuples design. If there are |D| possible treatments, then by a matched tuples design, we mean an experimental design where units are sampled i.i.d. from the population of interest, grouped into homogeneous blocks of size |D|, and finally, within each block, exactly one individual is randomly assigned to each of the |D| treatments. We first study est...
