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作者：Bidarkota, PV
作者单位：State University System of Florida; Florida International University
摘要：We investigate whether fluctuations in U.S. inflation rates are better described by infrequently occurring large shocks or by frequently occurring small shocks. We estimate a model that encompasses the two hypotheses within the framework of non-Gaussian state-space models. Our results indicate support for infrequently occurring large shocks, but this weakens somewhat once we allow for outliers and conditional heteroskedasticity. It appears that, for the purpose of forecasting monthly U.S. infl...
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作者：Irwin, DA
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The United States became a net exporter of manufactured goods around 1910 after a dramatic surge in iron and steel exports began in the mid-1890s. This paper argues that natural-resource abundance fueled the expansion of iron and steel exports in part by enabling a sharp reduction in the price of U.S. exports relative to other competitors. The commercial exploitation of the Mesabi iron ore range, for example, reduced domestic ore prices by 50% in the mid-1890s and was equivalent to over a deca...
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作者：Morley, JC; Nelson, CR; Zivot, E
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：This paper reconciles two widely used decompositions of GDP into trend and cycle that yield starkly different results. The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) decomposition implies that a stochastic trend accounts for most of the variation in output, whereas the unobserved-components (UC) implies cyclical variation is dominant. Which is correct has broad implications for the relative importance of real versus nominal shocks. We show the difference arises from the restriction imposed in UC that trend and cyc...
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作者：Rosenthal, SS; Strange, WC
作者单位：Syracuse University; University of Toronto
摘要：This paper makes two contributions to the empirical literature on agglomeration economies. First, the paper uses a unique and rich database in conjunction with mapping software to measure the geographic extent of agglomerative externalities. Previous papers have been forced to assume that agglomeration economies are club goods that operate at a metropolitan scale. Second, the paper tests for the existence of organizational agglomeration economies of the kind studied qualitatively by Saxenian (...
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作者：Hong, YM; Lee, TH
作者单位：Cornell University; National Tsing Hua University; University of California System; University of California Riverside
摘要：It is often documented, based on autocorrelation, variance ratio, and power spectrum, that exchange rates approximately follow a martingale process. Because these data check serial uncorrelatedness rather than martingale difference, they may deliver misleading conclusions in favor of the martingale hypothesis when the test statistics are insignificant. In this paper, we explore whether there exists a gap between serial uncorrelatedness and martingale difference for exchange rate changes, and i...
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作者：Harding, JP; Rosenthal, SS; Sirmans, CF
作者单位：University of Connecticut; Syracuse University
摘要：Although bargaining is common in markets for heterogeneous goods, it has largely been ignored in the hedonic literature. In a break from that tradition, we establish sufficient conditions that permit one to identify the effect of buyer and seller bargaining on hedonic models. Our model is estimated using a previously overlooked feature of the American Housing Survey that permits us to observe characteristics of both buyers and sellers. Results suggest that household wealth, gender, and other d...
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作者：Berg, GD; Kaempfer, WH
作者单位：McKesson Corporation; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：This paper calculates elasticities of demand for race groups in South Africa, government-revenue-maximizing tax rates, and excess burdens associated with taxes. A change in tax policy can be the political engine of income redistribution with appropriate taxes and subsidies on different commodities. This paper compares both semiparametric and parametric estimators with the censored least absolute deviation and censored maximum likelihood in calculating demand equations and elasticities. It is f...
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作者：Grogger, J
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Of all of the welfare reforms that were implemented during the 1990s, time limits may represent the single greatest break from past policy. This paper expands on what is known about this important welfare reform measure by exploiting the predictions from Grogger and Michalopoulos (2003) to estimate the effects of time limits on welfare use, employment, labor supply, earnings, and income among female-headed families. Results based on data from the March Current Population Survey suggest that ti...
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作者：Wolff, EN
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using U.S. input-output data for the period 1947-1996 and Dictionary of Occupational Titles skill scores, I find that U.S. exports have a high content in cognitive and interactive skills relative to imports, and a low content in motor skills. Moreover, the skill gap between exports and imports has widened over time. Imports are more capital- and equipment-intensive than exports, but the difference has fallen over time. By 1987 exports were more computer-intensive than imports. In contrast, tho...
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作者：Coppejans, M
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：We consider expectations of the form E[log y\x] = Sigma(j=1)(d) alpha(j) log x(j) as a good starting point for a more general analysis. We show why this naturally leads to the following flexible functional form: E[y\x] = f(Sigma(j=1)(d) h(j)(x(j))), where (f.) and the h(j)(.)'s are estimated by cubic splines. The main objective of this paper is to provide a straightforward method to estimate E[y\x]. We demonstrate the usefulness of this approach by estimating gasoline demand from the 1994 RTEC...
