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作者：Alexeev, Michael; Conrad, Robert
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Duke University; Duke University
摘要：Our goal is to show that contrary to the claims made in several recent papers, the effect of a large endowment of oil and other mineral resources on long-term economic growth of countries has been on balance positive. Moreover, the claims of a negative effect of oil and mineral wealth on the countries' institutions are called into question.
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作者：Ackerberg, Daniel A.; Devereux, Paul J.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Trinity College Dublin; University College Dublin
摘要：We introduce two simple new variants of the jackknife instrumental variables (JIVE) estimator for overidentified linear models and show that they are superior to the existing JIVE estimator, significantly improving on its small-sample-bias properties. We also compare our new estimators to existing Nagar (1959) type estimators. We show that, in models with heteroskedasticity, our estimators have superior properties to both the Nagar estimator and the related B2SLS estimator suggested in Donald ...
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作者：di Giovanni, Julian; McCrary, Justin; von Wachter, Till
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority makes it difficult to estimate the effect of monetary policy interventions on output. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on quarterly real output for several European countries, using German interest rates as the instrument. These estimates confirm a strong forward-looking bias in least squares estimates that persists even conditional on standard controls for the history of the system. Due t...
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作者：Feenstra, Robert C.; Heston, Alan; Timmer, Marcel P.; Deng, Haiyan
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania; University of Groningen
摘要：We propose a new approach to the international comparison of real GDP, as measured from the output-side. The traditional Gary-Khamis system, which measures real GDP from the expenditure-side, is modified to include differences in the terms of trade between countries. It is shown that this system has a strictly positive solution under mild assumptions. On the basis of a sample of 151 countries in 1996, it is shown that differences between real GDP measured from the expenditure-side and output-s...
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作者：Tarozzi, Alessandro; Deaton, Angus
作者单位：Duke University; Princeton University
摘要：Recent years have seen widespread use of small-area maps based on census data enriched by relationships estimated from household surveys that predict variables, such as income, not covered by the census. The purpose is to obtain putatively precise estimates of poverty and inequality for small areas for which no or few observations are available in the survey. We argue that to usefully match survey and census data in this way requires a degree of spatial homogeneity for which the method provide...
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作者：Conlin, Michael; Dickert-Conlin, Stacy; Pepper, John
作者单位：Michigan State University; University of Virginia
摘要：To control the deer population, state game commissions regulate the types of deer that can be legally harvested. These regulations, however, might have an unintended effect on hunting-related accidents by changing the care hunters take when firing their rifles-a moral hazard effect-or changing the composition of hunters. Using detailed data on hunting accidents and regulations in Pennsylvania counties from 1990 to 2005, we find compelling evidence that harvesting restrictions increase the care...
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作者：Grogger, Jeffrey
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：One rationale for work-focused welfare reform was human capital theory: work today should raise experience tomorrow, which should raise future wage offers and reduce welfare dependency. Yet few studies have estimated the effect of welfare reform on wages. I approach the problem using a novel sample selection estimator based on reservation wage data. Reservation wages solve the selection problem using bivariate censored regression methods without the need for exclusion restrictions. Whereas OLS...
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作者：Lee, Chul-In; Solon, Gary
作者单位：Seoul National University (SNU); Michigan State University
摘要：Previous studies of recent U. S. trends in intergenerational income mobility have produced widely varying results, partly because of large sampling errors. By making more efficient use of the available information in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we generate more reliable estimates of the recent time series variation in intergenerational mobility. Our results, which pertain to the cohorts born between 1952 and 1975, do not reveal major changes in intergenerational mobility.
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作者：Weitzman, Martin L.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：With climate change as prototype example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low-probability, high-impact catastrophes. Even when updated by Bayesian learning, uncertain structural parameters induce a critical tail fattening of posterior-predictive distributions. Such fattened tails have strong implications for situations, like climate change, where a catastrophe is theoretically possible because prior knowledge cannot place sufficiently narrow ...
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作者：Dustmann, Christian; Schoenberg, Uta
作者单位：University of London; University College London
摘要：This paper investigates whether unions, through imposing wage floors that lead to wage compression, increase on-the-job training. Our analysis focuses on Germany. Based on a model of unions and firm-financed training, we derive empirical implications regarding apprenticeship training intensity, layoffs, wage cuts, and wage compression in unionized and nonunionized firms. We test these implications using firm panel data matched with administrative employee data. We find support for the hypothes...
