The Annals of Applied Statistics

最新文章

• COMPARING BASEBALL PLAYERS ACROSS ERAS VIA NOVEL FULL HOUSE MODELING AI翻译
  作者：Yan, Shen; Burgos Jr, Adrian; Kinson, Christopher; Eck, Daniel J.
  作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
  摘要：A new methodological framework suitable for era-adjusting baseball statistics is developed in this article. Within this methodological framework specific models are motivated. We call these models Full House Models. Full House Models work by balancing the achievements of Major League Baseball (MLB) players within a given season and the size of the MLB talent pool from which a player came. We demonstrate the utility of Full House Models in an application of comparing baseball players' performan...
• THE PROPERTIES OF COVARIATE-ADAPTIVE RANDOMIZATION PROCEDURES WITH POSSIBLY UNEQUAL ALLOCATION RATIO AI翻译
  作者：Liu, Xiao; Hu, Feifang; Ma, Wei
  作者单位：Renmin University of China; George Washington University
  摘要：In clinical trials, covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) procedures are used to balance important covariates for more convincing results and enhanced statistical efficiency. Although most CAR procedures focus on trials with 1:1 allocation ratio, the demand for unequal allocation is growing. Therefore, this paper proposes a CAR framework that unifies numerous existing procedures and can balance general (discrete, continuous, or their combinations) covariates under any allocation ratio. To eva...
• ENDOGENEITY AND MOMENTS IN TIME SERIES MOMENTUM'S PREDICTABILITY TEST AI翻译
  作者：Jiang, Lei; Peng, Liang; Qin, Hongling; Yang, Bingduo
  作者单位：University System of Ohio; Kent State University; Kent State University Salem; Kent State University Kent; University System of Georgia; Georgia State University; Auburn University System; Auburn University; Guangdong University of Finance & Economics
  摘要：The predictability test is critical in developing momentum trading strategies. In time-series momentum (TSM) tests via linear predictive regressions, the classical and Newey-West t-tests have size distortions because of endogeneity and a lack of enough finite moments. To tackle these issues, this paper proposes a new test that features a model of the error correlations, weighted least squares estimation, and the random weighted bootstrap method. Simulations confirm its accurate size and good p...
• A NOVEL FRAMEWORK TO QUANTIFY UNCERTAINTY IN PEPTIDE-TANDEM MASS SPECTRUM MATCHES WITH APPLICATION TO NANOBODY PEPTIDE IDENTIFICATION AI翻译
  作者：McKennan, Chris; Sang, Zhe; Shi, Yi
  作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
  摘要：Nanobodies are small antibody fragments derived from camelids that selectively bind to antigens. These proteins have marked physicochemical properties that support advanced therapeutics, including possible treatments for SARS-CoV-2. To realize their potential, bottom-up proteomics via liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) has been proposed to identify antigen-specific nanobodies at the proteome scale, where a critical component of this pipeline is matching nanobody peptides...
• COMPARATIVE JUDGEMENT MODELLING TO MAP FORCED MARRIAGE AT LOCAL LEVELS AI翻译
  作者：Seymour, Rowland; Nyarko-Agyei, Albert; McCabe, Helen; Severn, Katie; Sirl, David; Kypraios, Theodore; Taylor, Adam
  作者单位：University of Birmingham; University of Nottingham; University of Nottingham; University of Nottingham
  摘要：Forcing someone into marriage against their will is a violation of their human rights. In 2021, the county of Nottinghamshire, U.K., launched a strategy to tackle forced marriage and violence against women and girls. We set out to map the risk of forced marriage across the county to support the strategy and enable the development of local interventions. However, there was no centralised database for forced marriage in the county and carrying out a survey using standard survey methods was unlik...
• THE SHORT-TERM DYNAMICS OF CONFLICT-DRIVEN DISPLACEMENT: BAYESIAN MODELING OF DISAGGREGATED DATA FROM SOMALIA AI翻译
  作者：Zens, Gregor; Thalheimer, Lisa
  作者单位：International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
  摘要：Understanding the short-run dynamics of conflict and forced displacement is crucial for the design of effective policy responses, yet quantitative analyses in this realm are sparse. This is primarily due to the scarcity of high-frequency displacement data and methodological challenges arising when modeling imperfect data collected in conflict zones. Addressing both issues, we develop a Bayesian panel regression model to assess the shortterm impact of conflict on displacement in Somalia, utiliz...
• EBICOP: ENSEMBLE BIVARIATE COPULAS FOR MODELING MULTIVARIATE CYBER DATA BREACH RISKS AI翻译
  作者：Li, Yijia; Nguyen, Quynh nhu; Xu, Maochao; Zhao, Peng; Hu, Taizhong
  作者单位：Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Science & Technology of China, CAS; University of Texas System; University of Texas at San Antonio; Illinois State University; Jiangsu Normal University
  摘要：Modeling cyber data breach risks poses a formidable challenge, primarily due to the intricate multivariate dependencies within a backdrop of limited data. This study proposes a novel ensemble learning approach that effectively captures both the temporal and cross-sectional dependence inherent in cyber risks. The proposed approach is significantly different from those traditional ones that directly model the multivariate dependence among risks. Instead, our approach leverages bivariate copulas ...
• ACCOUNTING FOR SHARED COVARIATES IN SEMIPARAMETRIC BAYESIAN ADDITIVE REGRESSION TREES AI翻译
  作者：Prado, Estevao B.; Parnell, Andrew C.; Moral, Rafael A.; Mcjames, Nathan; O'shea, Ann; Murphy, Keefe
  作者单位：Lancaster University; Maynooth University; Maynooth University; Maynooth University
  摘要：We propose some extensions to semiparametric models based on Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). In the semiparametric BART paradigm, the response variable is approximated by a linear predictor and a BART model, where the linear component is responsible for estimating the main effects and BART accounts for nonspecified interactions and nonlinearities. Previous semiparametric models based on BART have assumed that the set of covariates in the linear predictor and the BART model are mutua...
• CECNN: COPULA-ENHANCED CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN JOINT PREDICTION OF REFRACTION ERROR AND AXIAL LENGTH BASED ON ULTRA-WIDEFIELD FUNDUS IMAGES AI翻译
  作者：Zhong, Chong; Li, Yang; Yang, Danjuan; Li, Meiyan; Zhou, Xingtao; Fu, Bo; Liu, Catherine c.; Welsh, A. H.
  作者单位：Hong Kong Polytechnic University; Fudan University; Fudan University; Fudan University; Australian National University
  摘要：The ultra-widefield (UWF) fundus image is an attractive 3D biomarker in AI-aided myopia screening because it provides much richer myopia-related information. Though axial length (AL) has been acknowledged to be highly related to the two key targets of myopia screening, spherical equivalence (SE) measurement and high myopia diagnosis, its prediction based on the UWF fundus image is rarely considered. To save the high expense and time costs of measuring SE and AL, we propose the Copula-enhanced ...
• AN APPLICATION OF VINE-BASED REGRESSION TO FLIGHT LANDING DATA AI翻译
  作者：Alnasser, Hassan; Czado, Claudia
  作者单位：Technical University of Munich
  摘要：Runway overruns pose a significant challenge to aviation safety and represent the most common type of landing incident. Identifying the underlying factors contributing to runway overruns is vital for the development of effective prevention strategies. Since a few overruns are observed, the distance required for a pilot to achieve control of the aircraft, measured by the distance to decelerate to 80 knots, is used as a precursor. We propose vine copulabased distributional regression models for ...