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作者：Clements, Robert Alan; Schoenberg, Frederic Paik; Schorlemmer, Danijel
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Southern California; Helmholtz Association; Helmholtz-Center Potsdam GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences
摘要：Modern, powerful techniques for the residual analysis of spatial-temporal point process models are reviewed and compared. These methods are applied to California earthquake forecast models used in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Assessments of these earthquake forecasting models have previously been performed using simple, low-power means such as the L-test and N-test. We instead propose residual methods based on rescaling, thinning, superposition, weighted...
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作者：Mishchenko, Yuriy; Paninski, Liam
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：Monte Carlo approaches have recently been proposed to quantify connectivity in neuronal networks. The key problem is to sample from the conditional distribution of a single neuronal spike train, given the activity of the other neurons in the network. Dependencies between neurons are usually relatively weak; however, temporal dependencies within the spike train of a single neuron are typically strong. In this paper we develop several specialized Metropolis-Hastings samplers which take advantage...
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作者：Goerg, Georg M.
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：Originating from a system theory and an input/output point of view, I introduce a new class of generalized distributions. A parametric nonlinear transformation converts a random variable X into a so-called Lambert W random variable Y, which allows a very flexible approach to model skewed data. Its shape depends on the shape of X and a skewness parameter gamma. In particular, for symmetric X and nonzero gamma the output Y is skewed. Its distribution and density function are particular variants ...
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作者：Panaretos, Victor M.; Konis, Kjell
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne
摘要：Single-particle electron microscopy is a modern technique that biophysicists employ to learn the structure of proteins. It yields data that consist of noisy random projections of the protein structure in random directions, with the added complication that the projection angles cannot be observed. In order to reconstruct a three-dimensional model, the projection directions need to be estimated by use of an ad-hoc starting estimate of the unknown particle. In this paper we propose a methodology ...
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作者：Feng, Zeny; Wong, William W. L.; Gao, Xin; Schenkel, Flavio
作者单位：University of Guelph; University of Toronto; York University - Canada; University of Guelph
摘要：Genetic association study is an essential step to discover genetic factors that are associated with a complex trait of interest. In this paper we present a novel generalized quasi-likelihood score (GQLS) test that is suitable for a study with either a quantitative trait or a binary trait. We use a logistic regression model to link the phenotypic value of the trait to the distribution of allelic frequencies. In our model, the allele frequencies are treated as a response and the trait is treated...
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作者：Matteson, David S.; McLean, Mathew W.; Woodard, Dawn B.; Henderson, Shane G.
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：We introduce a new method for forecasting emergency call arrival rates that combines integer-valued time series models with a dynamic latent factor structure. Covariate information is captured via simple constraints on the factor loadings. We directly model the count-valued arrivals per hour, rather than using an artificial assumption of normality. This is crucial for the emergency medical service context, in which the volume of calls may be very low. Smoothing splines are used in estimating t...
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作者：Fox, Emily B.; Sudderth, Erik B.; Jordan, Michael I.; Willsky, Alan S.
作者单位：Duke University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Brown University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We consider the problem of speaker diarization, the problem of segmenting an audio recording of a meeting into temporal segments corresponding to individual speakers. The problem is rendered particularly difficult by the fact that we are not allowed to assume knowledge of the number of people participating in the meeting. To address this problem, we take a Bayesian nonparametric approach to speaker diarization that builds on the hierarchical Dirichlet process hidden Markov model (HDP-HMM) of T...
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作者：Kaufman, Cari G.; Bingham, Derek; Habib, Salman; Heitmann, Katrin; Frieman, Joshua A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Simon Fraser University; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Argonne National Laboratory; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Los Alamos National Laboratory; United States Department of Energy (DOE); University of Chicago; Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
摘要：Statistical emulators of computer simulators have proven to be useful in a variety of applications. The widely adopted model for emulator building, using a Gaussian process model with strictly positive correlation function, is computationally intractable when the number of simulator evaluations is large. We propose a new model that uses a combination of low-order regression terms and compactly supported correlation functions to recreate the desired predictive behavior of the emulator at a frac...
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作者：Tancredi, Andrea; Liseo, Brunero
作者单位：Sapienza University Rome
摘要：We propose and illustrate a hierarchical Bayesian approach for matching statistical records observed on different occasions. We show how this model can be profitably adopted both in record linkage problems and in capture-recapture setups, where the size of a finite population is the real object of interest. There are at least two important differences between the proposed model-based approach and the current practice in record linkage. First, the statistical model is built up on the actually o...
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作者：Brynjarsdottir, Jenny; Berliner, L. Mark
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：We present a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to paleoclimate reconstruction using borehole temperature profiles. The approach relies on modeling heat conduction in solids via the heat equation with step function, surface boundary conditions. Our analysis includes model error and assumes that the boundary conditions are random processes. The formulation also enables separation of measurement error and model error. We apply the analysis to data from nine borehole temperature records from...
