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作者：Bray, Robert L.; Yao, Yuliang; Duan, Yongrui; Huo, Jiazhen
作者单位：Northwestern University; Lehigh University; Tongji University
摘要：We model a single-supplier, 73-store supply chain as a dynamic discrete choice problem. We estimate the model with transaction-level data, spanning 3,251 products and 1,370 days. We find two interrelated phenomena: the bullwhip effect and ration gaming. To establish the bullwhip effect, we show that shipments from suppliers are more variable than sales to customers. To establish ration gaming, we show that upstream scarcity triggers inventory runs, with stores simultaneously scrambling to amas...
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作者：Haase, Knut; Kasper, Mathias; Koch, Matthes; Mueller, Sven
作者单位：University of Hamburg; Technische Universitat Dresden; Karlsruhe University of Applied Sciences
摘要：The Hajj-the great pilgrimage to Mecca, Saudi Arabia-is one of the five pillars of Islam. Up to four million pilgrims perform the Hajj rituals every year. This makes it one of the largest pedestrian problems in the world. Ramy al-Jamarat-the symbolic stoning of the devil-is known to be a particularly crowded ritual. Up until 2006, it was repeatedly overshadowed by severe crowd disasters. To avoid such disasters, Saudi authorities initiated a comprehensive crowd management program. A novel cont...
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作者：Saure, Denis; Vielma, Juan Pablo
作者单位：Universidad de Chile; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Questionnaires for adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis aim at minimizing some measure of the uncertainty associated with estimates of preference parameters (e.g., partworths). Bayesian approaches to conjoint analysis quantify this uncertainty with a multivariate distribution that is updated after the respondent answers. Unfortunately, this update often requires multidimensional integration, which effectively reduces the adaptive selection of questions to impractical enumeration. An alterna...
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作者：Long, Jiancheng; Szeto, Wai Yuen
作者单位：Hefei University of Technology; University of Hong Kong
摘要：Most current system optimum dynamic traffic assignment (SO-DTA) models do not contain first-in-first-out (FIFO) constraints and are limited to single-destination network applications. In this study, we introduce the link transmission model (LTM) for the development of SO-DTA models either with or without FIFO constraints for general network applications. The proposed SO-DTA models include the LTM and can lead to a linear programming (LP) formulation if the FIFO constraints are not explicitly c...
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作者：Afeche, Philipp; Baron, Opher; Milner, Joseph; Roet-Green, Ricky
作者单位：University of Toronto; University of Rochester
摘要：We consider the pricing/lead-time menu design problem for a monopoly service in which time-sensitive customers have demand on multiple occasions. Customers differ in their demand rates and marginal values (per use). We assume that customers queue for a finite-capacity service under a general pricing structure. Customers choose a plan from the menu to maximize their expected utility. We compare two models: one in which the demand rate is the private information of the customers, and another in ...
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作者：Zhao, Long; Chakrabarti, Deepayan; Muthuraman, Kumar
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：We address the problem of poor portfolio performance when a minimum-variance portfolio is constructed using the sample estimates. Estimation errors are mostly blamed for the poor portfolio performance. However, we argue that even small unbiased estimation errors can lead to significantly bad performance because the optimization step amplifies errors, in a nonsymmetric way. Instead of trying to independently improve the estimation step or fix the optimization step for robustness, we disentangle...
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作者：Zhan, Dongyuan; Ward, Amy R.
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of Chicago
摘要：Most common queueing models used for service-system design assume that the servers work at fixed (possibly heterogeneous) rates. However, real-life service systems are staffed by people, and people may change their service speed in response to incentives. The delicacy is that the resulting service speed is jointly affected by staffing, routing, and payment decisions. Our objective in this paper is to find a joint staffing, routing, and payment policy that induces optimal service-system perform...
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作者：Ayer, Turgay; Zhang, Can; Bonifonte, Anthony; Spaulding, Anne C.; Chhatwal, Jagpreet
作者单位：University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology; Duke University; University System of Ohio; Denison University; Emory University; Rollins School Public Health; Harvard University; Harvard University Medical Affiliates; Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School
摘要：Hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence in prison systems is 10 times higher than in the general population, and hence prison systems offer a unique opportunity to control the HCV epidemic. New HCV treatment drugs are very effective, but providing treatment to all inmates is prohibitively expensive, which precludes universal HCV treatment in prison systems. As such, current practice recommends prioritizing treatment based on clinical and incarceration-related factors, including disease staging, rem...
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作者：Anderson, Edward J.; Philpott, Andrew B.
作者单位：University of Sydney; University of Auckland
摘要：We consider the use of forward contracts to reduce risk for firms operating in a spot market. Firms have private information on the distribution of prices in the spot market. We discuss different ways in which firms may agree on a bilateral forward contract: either through direct negotiation or through a broker. We introduce a form of supply-function equilibrium in which two firms each offer a supply function, and the clearing price and quantity for the forward contracts are determined from th...
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作者：Feng, Youyi; Xu, Jianjun; Zheng, Shaohui
作者单位：Sichuan University; Dongbei University of Finance & Economics; Dongbei University of Finance & Economics; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We consider a periodic-review inventory system of two products with positive replenishment lead times, assuming that downward substitution is allowed and that replenishment is capped. We aim to characterize the structures of the optimal policies for product replenishment and substitution that minimize the expected total discounted cost over a finite horizon. With a Markovian decision programming formulation and an appropriate relaxation of constraints on the substitution quantity, we show that...
