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作者：Krane, S; Wascher, W
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：This paper investigates interactions between seasonal and cyclical movements in U.S. payroll employment. Using a multivariate unobserved components model, we test for such interactions and find that they are statistically significant in a number of industries. Still, most industry-level seasonality appears to be idiosyncratic. The model also identifies an unobserved common cycle that exhibits similar business cycle properties, but smaller seasonal variation, than aggregate payroll employment. ...
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作者：McCallum, BT; Nelson, E
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; Bank of England
摘要：This paper presents simulation results regarding the performance of nominal income targeting, a monetary policy rule that sets interest rates in response to deviations of nominal GDP growth from a target path. The macroeconomic model is one in which agents solve dynamic optimization problems with rational expectations, but in an environment with slow price adjustments. In the present version, consumption choices reflect habit formation and the economy is open to international flows of goods an...
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作者：DeJuan, JP; Seater, JJ
作者单位：North Carolina State University; York University - Canada
摘要：Consumption Euler relations are estimated with data from the 1986-1991 US Consumer Expenditure Survey without creating a synthetic panel. The stochastic implications of the permanent income hypothesis generally are not rejected, and there is little evidence of liquidity-constrained or rule-of-thumb behavior. The results are robust with respect to consumption category, changes in sample, and choice of instruments. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: D12; E21.
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作者：Finn, MG
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：This study develops a quantitative equilibrium theory to offer an explanation of one of the most puzzling aspects of empirical exchange rate behavior - the high degree of nominal and real exchange rate comovement. Technology shocks coupled with the accomodative response of monetary policy to output fluctuations are primarily responsible for the covariation between nominal and real exchange rates. Shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment also play an important role. (C) 1999 Elsevier Sci...
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作者：Cushing, MJ
作者单位：University of Nebraska System; University of Nebraska Lincoln
摘要：This paper investigates the issue of price level indeterminacy under a pure interest rate peg in models that depart from standard Ricardian assumptions. Using a monetary version of Blanchard's finite horizons model, I find wealth effects operating on government bonds are not sufficient to determine a unique price level. Next, I consider price determination under a non-Ricardian fiscal authority. I show that, if agents rationally perceive the possibility of fiscal default, the price level is ag...
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作者：Faust, J; Irons, JS
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：The political economy literature has enshrined as stylized fact the view that lower inflation and temporarily lower growth follow the election of Republican presidents and has emphasized political manipulation of monetary policy as an explanation. Support for the monetary explanation comes in econometric work that largely ignores identification issues that dominate the literature on measuring the effects of monetary policy. We generalize a standard vector autoregression framework to accommodat...
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作者：Abel, AB; Eberly, JC
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Pennsylvania; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Irreversibility and uncertainty increase the user cost of capital which tends to reduce the capital stock. Working in the opposite direction is a hangover effect, which arises because irreversibility prevents the firm from selling capital even when the marginal revenue product of capital is low. Neither the user cost effect nor the hangover effect dominates globally, so that irreversibility may increase or decrease capital accumulation. Furthermore, an increase in uncertainty can either increa...
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作者：Mishkin, FS
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines the international experiences with four basic types of monetary policy regimes: (1) exchange-rate targeting, (2) monetary targeting, (3) inflation targeting, and (4) monetary policy with an implicit but not an explicit nominal anchor. The basic theme that emerges from this analysis is that transparency and accountability are crucial to constraining discretionary monetary policy so that it produces desirable long-run outcomes. Because the devil is in the details in achieving...
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作者：von Hagen, J
作者单位：University of Bonn; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington
摘要：The recent debate over monetary strategies concludes that monetary and inflation targeting lead to very similar patterns of central bank behavior, Why, then, do central banks insist on the strategies they use. In this paper, we develop an answer from political economy, arguing that monetary strategies are helpful in solving internal and external coordination problems for the central bank. We illustrate the point by reviewing the Bundesbank's experience with money growth targeting in the mid-19...
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作者：Tootell, GMB
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：The rising inflation of the 1970s inspired substantial theoretical analysis of the goals of central banks. In models with time-inconsistent monetary policy, central bankers are assumed to produce positive equilibrium inflation because they target an unemployment rate below the NAIRU. Ball (1995) notes that these models could explain the level of inflation but not its frequent and persistent movements. Although real shocks, as in Rogoff (1985), can produce temporary changes in inflation, Ball e...
