作者：VANRIEL, A; SCHRAM, A
摘要：A politicoeconomic model of the relationship between economic and structural variables and government popularity is developed and applied to the Weimar Republic. We obtained data from decentralized election results in the 1924 to 1933 period, using a weighted panel estimation method. Parameter estimates show a strong relationship between the development of economic variables and the decline in electoral support that confronted every government in this period. We link this finding to existing h...
作者：Duke University; University of Kansas; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：New evidence based on census data indicates that output per agricultural worker grew faster between 1860 and 1870 than during any other decade of the nineteenth century. Although this evidence seems to support the traditional view that the Civil War was a catalyst for an increasingly productive agricultural sector, we contend that this apparent robust performance results from a measurement problem that afflicts census-based labor force series. An alternative estimate of labor force performance...
作者：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In contrast to historical accounts of the boom and crash of the 1929 stock market, recent econometric studies have concluded that there were no bubbles in the American stock market over the past one hundred years. Examining the pricing of loans to stock brokers, we find information on the lenders' perceptions of the future course of stock prices in 1929. From this market, we extract an estimate of the bubble in stock prices. This bubble component contributes significantly to explain stock pric...
