作者：Yeungnam University
摘要：Takahashi Korekiyo is remembered as a wise finance minister saving Japan from the Great Depression. The contribution of his policy measures however remains to be rigorously measured, with proper control of other forces also driving the recovery. Structural vector autoregression analysis of previously unexploited monthly data confirms the pivotal role of Takahashi's debt-financed fiscal expansion. Monetizing the public debts, the Bank of Japan maintained a neutral stance. The recovery was aided...
作者：Princeton University; University of Adelaide
作者：University of Virginia; University of Virginia
摘要：We calculate the natural rate of unemployment in 1909 by first estimating equations for the incidence and time lost in unemployment on a pooled dataset integrating the manuscript sample of the 1910 census and state BLS surveys and then simulating a counterfactual unemployment rate as if the economy had been on trend that year with business-cycle effects neutralized. Following a similar procedure for the 1960s, we find the natural rate in the earlier period to have been substantially higher. Th...
