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作者：Goncalves, Duarte; Libgober, Jonathan; Willis, Jack
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of Southern California; Columbia University
摘要：We modify a canonical experimental design to identify the effectiveness of retractions. Comparing beliefs after retractions to beliefs (1) without the retracted information and (2) after equivalent new information, we find that retractions result in diminished belief updating in both cases. We propose this reflects updating from retractions being more complex, and our analysis supports this: we find longer response times, lower accuracy, and higher variability. The results-robust across divers...
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作者：Tsakas, Elias
作者单位：Maastricht University
摘要：It is well-known that individual beliefs cannot be identified using traditional choice data, unless we exogenously assume state-independent utilities. In this paper, I propose a novel methodology that solves this long-standing identification problem in a simple way. This method relies on extending the state space by introducing a proxy, for which the agent has no stakes conditional on the original state space. The latter allows us to identify the agent's conditional beliefs about the proxy giv...
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作者：Coulomb, Renaud; Henriet, Fanny; Reitzmann, Leo
作者单位：University of Melbourne; Aix-Marseille Universite; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Paris School of Economics
摘要：Not all barrels of oil are created equal: their extraction varies in both private cost and carbon intensity. Leveraging a comprehensive micro-dataset on world oil fields, alongside detailed estimates of carbon intensities and private extraction costs, this study quantifies the additional emissions and costs from having extracted the wrong deposits. We do so by comparing historical deposit-level supplies to counterfactuals that factor in pollution costs, while keeping annual global consumption ...
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作者：Adusumilli, Karun
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We study sequential experiments where sampling is costly and a decision-maker aims to determine the best treatment for full-scale implementation by (1) adaptively allocating units between two possible treatments, and (2) stopping the experiment when the expected welfare (inclusive of sampling costs) from implementing the chosen treatment is maximised. Working under a continuous time limit, we characterise the optimal policies under the minimax regret criterion. We show that the same policies a...
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作者：Bordalo, Pedro; Conlon, John; Gennaioli, Nicola; Kwon, Spencer; Shleifer, Andrei
作者单位：University of Oxford; Carnegie Mellon University; Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Brown University; Harvard University
摘要：For standard statistical problems, we provide new evidence documenting (1) multimodality and (2) instability in probability estimates, including from irrelevant changes in problem description. The evidence motivates a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis by attending to its salient features while neglecting other, potentially more relevant, ones. Only the statistics associated with salient features are used. The model unifies biases in judgments about i.i.d....
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作者：Krishna, Kala; Lychagin, Sergey; Olszewski, Wojciech; Siegel, Ron; Tergiman, Chloe
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：Many countries base college admissions on a centrally administered test. Students invest a great deal of resources to improve their performance on the test, and there is growing concern about the high costs associated with these activities. We consider modifying the test by introducing performance-disclosure policies that pool intervals of performance rankings. Pooling affects the equilibrium allocation of students to colleges, which hurts some students and benefits others, but also affects st...
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作者：Boehm, Christoph E.; Kroner, T. Niklas
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We provide evidence for a causal link between the U.S. economy and the global financial cycle. Using intraday data, we show that U.S. macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity prices all jump instantaneously upon news releases. The responses of stock indexes co-move across countries and are large-often comparable in size to the response of the S&P 500. Further, U.S. macroeconomic news...
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作者：Cabral, Marika; Kim, Bokyung; Rossin-Slater, Maya; Schnell, Molly; Schwandt, Hannes
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Connecticut; Stanford Medicine; Stanford University; Northwestern University; Northwestern University
摘要：We examine how shootings at schools-an increasingly common form of gun violence in the States-impact the educational and economic trajectories of students. Using linked schooling and labor market data in Texas from 1992 to 2018, we compare within-student and across-cohort changes in outcomes following a shooting to those experienced by students at matched control schools. We find that school shootings increase absenteeism and grade repetition, reduce high school graduation, college enrollment,...
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作者：Biroli, Pietro; Galama, Titus; von Hinke, Stephanie; van Kippersluis, Hans; Rietveld, Cornelius A.; Thom, Kevin
作者单位：University of Bologna; University of Southern California; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; University of Bristol; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We discuss how to estimate the interplay between genes (nature) and environments (nurture), with an empirical illustration of the moderating effect of school starting age on one's genetic predisposition towards educational attainment. We argue that gene-environment (GxE) studies can be instrumental for (i) assessing treatment effect heterogeneity, (ii) testing theoretical predictions, and (iii) uncovering mechanisms, thereby improving understanding of how (policy) interventions affect populati...
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作者：Quispe-Torreblanca, Edika; Gathergood, John; Loewenstein, George; Stewart, Neil
作者单位：University of Leeds; University of Nottingham; Carnegie Mellon University; University of Warwick
摘要：We study attention utility, the hedonic pleasure or pain derived purely from paying attention to information, which differs from the news utility that arises from gaining new information. The main, field, study examines brokerage account login data to show that investors pay disproportionate attention to already-known positive information on their stocks. Through its effect on logins, this selective attention affects their trading activity. Three experimental studies then show that (1) investo...
