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作者：Pang, Hao
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas
摘要：I show that the overreaction of the long-term yield forecasts to yield news, evidenced in recent studies, results directly from the overreaction of long-horizon inflation forecasts to inflation news. Motivated by this finding, I study how agents form inflation expectations across forecast horizons. Short-horizon survey forecasts underreact, while long-horizon forecasts overreact to inflation news. To reconcile this behavior, I implement a long-run bias, building on the widely shared intuition ...
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作者：Cookson, J. Anthony; Fox, Corbin; Gil-Bazo, Javier; Imbet, Juan F.; Schiller, Christoph
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Clemson University; Barcelona School of Economics; Pompeu Fabra University; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：After the run on Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, U.S. regional banks entered a period of significant distress. We quantify social media's role in this distress using comprehensive Twitter data. During the SVB run period, banks with high pre-existing exposure to Twitter lost 4.3 percentage points more stock market value. Moreover, Twitter pre-exposure interacts significantly with classical run risks to predict greater run severity and greater deposit outflows during Q1-2023, effects un...
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作者：Korteweg, Arthur; Panageas, Stavros; Systla, Anand
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We evaluate private equity (PE) performance using investor-specific stochastic discount factors, and examine whether public pension plans could benefit from changing their allocation to PE. Plans invest in PE funds with higher than average risk-adjusted performance. This is mainly due to access to successful managers, not superior selection skill. Decomposing returns into risk-compensation and alpha, we find that some plans obtain higher PE returns by taking more risk without earning higher, a...
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作者：Bergeaud, Antonin; Schmidt, Julia; Zago, Riccardo
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：When a technology becomes the new standard, the firms that are leaders in producing this technology gain a competitive advantage. Matching the semantic content of patents to standard documents, we show that firms closer to the new technology standard increase their market share and sales. In addition, if they operate in a competitive market, these firms also increase their R&D expenditure. Yet, these effects are temporary since standardization creates a common technological basis for everyone,...
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作者：Goldstein, Itay; Liu, Bibo; Yang, Liyan
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Tsinghua University; University of Toronto
摘要：We surveyed all Chinese public firms in 2019 and 2022 to examine the real effects of financial markets. Over 90% of firms say they actively monitor the stock market, and the most common reasons they provide are that they learn new information from the price and that they depend on the price for financing. Focusing on the learning channel, we examine how the responses relate to firm characteristics and actions. Firms that indicate learning have characteristics that suggest greater benefit from ...
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作者：Eaton, Gregory W.; Green, T. Clifton; Roseman, Brian S.; Wu, Yanbin
作者单位：University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; Emory University; Oklahoma State University System; Oklahoma State University - Stillwater; State University System of Florida; University of Florida
摘要：Retail option traders are typically net purchasers of short-dated options, especially out-of-the-money contracts, whereas they frequently sell long-dated options. Using retail brokerage platform outages as shocks to trading, we find that outages are associated with commensurate demand shocks to implied volatility. Outages produce lower implied volatility on average, with stronger reductions for options that tend to be purchased by retail investors. In contrast, implied volatility increases for...
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作者：Janas, Pawel
作者单位：California Institute of Technology; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：I examine the effects of public debt on municipal services and real outcomes during financial crises using a unique archival dataset of U.S. cities from 1924 to 1943. Unlike today's countercyclical fiscal policies, the Great Depression provides a rare setting to observe fiscal shocks without substantial intergovernmental or Federal Reserve support. My findings show that financial market frictions-especially the need to refinance debt-led cities to sharply cut expenditures, particularly on capi...
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作者：Kilic, Mete; Tuzel, Selale
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：We document that 20% of Compustat firms exhibit above-median investment rates despite having below-median marginal product of capital (MPK), seemingly misallocating resources. These firms are typically younger and more likely to experience substantial upwards jumps in sales and MPK in subsequent years. They contribute significantly to innovation, and their investments predict future aggregate productivity, creating value beyond their current MPK. We propose and estimate a simple endogenous fir...
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作者：Benguria, Felipe; Garcia-Marin, Alvaro; Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim
作者单位：Universidad de los Andes - Chile; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Exploiting transaction-level international trade data, this paper documents that long-term firm-to-firm relationships facilitate the use of trade credit, with the strength of this effect varying with firm size, firms' payment delays, and multinational affiliate status. Effects also depend on the strength of contract enforcement across countries and the complexity of products traded. Because trade credit can reduce the overall need to borrow from the financial sector, long-term relationships ma...
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作者：Rodnyansky, Alexander; Timmer, Yannick; Yago, Naoki
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Reading
摘要：This paper studies the effectiveness and mechanism of foreign exchange interventions (FXIs) for mitigating US monetary policy spillovers. Without interventions, contractionary US monetary policy shocks trigger foreign exchange depreciations, raise risk premiums, and induce portfolio outflows, thereby reducing foreign stock prices. The stock prices of firms with US dollar debt decline significantly more, indicating a strong role for a balance sheet channel. However, intervening against the Fed ...
