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作者：Sloughter, J. McLean; Gneiting, Tilmann; Raftery, Adrian E.
作者单位：Seattle University; Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：The current weather forecasting paradigm is deterministric, based on numerical models Multiple estimates of the curl em state of the atmosphere are used to generate an ensemble of deterministic predictions Ensemble forecasts. while providing information on forecast uncertainty. are often uncalibrated Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical ensemble postprocessing method that creates calibrated predictive probability density functions (PM's) Probabilistic wind forecasting offers two cha...
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作者：Morgan, John P.; Wang, Xiaowei
作者单位：Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; GlaxoSmithKline; Glaxosmithkline USA
摘要：An optimality framework is developed for designing experiments in which not all treatments are of equal interest, such as those including an established control. Differential interest in treatments is formalized by assignment of weights. incorporated into optimality measures through a weighted version of the information matrix. All conventional measures of design efficacy are shown to have weighted analogs. The properties of weighted measures are explored, some general theory is developed, and...
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作者：Li, Pengfei; Chen, Jiahua
作者单位：University of Alberta; University of British Columbia
摘要：The order is an important parameter in applications of finite mixture models. Yet designing a valid and easy-to-use statistical test for the order is challenging. To date, most results on hypothesis tests have focused on homogeneity, a special case where the null model has order I. In this work, we designed an EM test for the general problem of testing the null hypothesis of order m(0) versus an alternative hypothesis of order larger than m(0). For any positive integer m(0), the null limiting ...
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作者：Cook, R. Dennis; Forzani, Liliana
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National University of the Littoral
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作者：Li, Yehua; Wang, Naisyin; Carroll, Raymond J.
作者单位：University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：We introduce a new class of functional generalized linear models, where the response is a scalar and some of the covariates are functional. We assume that the response depends on multiple covariates, a finite number of latent features in the functional predictor, and interaction between the two. To achieve parsimony, the interaction between the multiple covariates and the functional predictor is modeled semipara-metrically with a single-index structure. We propose a two-step estimation procedu...
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作者：Baiocchi, Mike; Small, Dylan S.; Lorch, Scott; Rosenbaum, Paul R.
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania; Pennsylvania Medicine; Childrens Hospital of Philadelphia
摘要：An instrument is a random nudge toward acceptance of a treatment that affects outcomes only to the extent that it affects acceptance of the treatment. Nonetheless, in settings in which treatment assignment is mostly deliberate and not random, there may exist some essentially random nudges to accept treatment, so that use of an instrument might extract bits of random treatment assignment from a setting that is otherwise quite biased in its treatment assignments. An instrument is weak if the ran...
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作者：Wang, C.; Daniels, M. J.; Scharfstein, D. O.; Land, S.
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; US Food & Drug Administration (FDA); Johns Hopkins University; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
摘要：We consider inference in randomized longitudinal studies with missing data that is generated by skipped clinic visits and loss to followup. In this setting, it is well known that full data estimands are not identified unless unverified assumptions are imposed. We assume a non-future dependence model for the drop-out mechanism and partial ignorability for the intermittent missingness. We posit an exponential tilt model that links nonidentifiable distributions and distributions identified under ...
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作者：Abadie, Alberto; Diamond, Alexis; Hainmueller, Jens
作者单位：Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that. following Proposition 99, tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic control region. We estimate that by the y...
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作者：Peress, Michael; Spirling, Arthur
作者单位：University of Rochester; Harvard University; Harvard University
摘要：We study the critical opinions of expert movie reviewers as an item response problem Building on earlier unfolding models, we develop a framework that models an individual's decision to approve of disapprove of an item Using this approach we are able to recover the locations of movies and ideal points of critics in the same multidimensional space We demonstrate that a three-dimensional model captures much of the variation in critical opinions The first dimension signifies movie quality while t...
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作者：Cressie, Noel; Tingley, Martin P.
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
