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作者：Ignatiadis, Nikolaos; Sun, Dennis L.
作者单位：University of Chicago; Stanford University
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作者：Zhou, Doudou; Liu, Molei; Li, Mengyan; Cai, Tianxi
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; National University of Singapore; Columbia University; Bentley University; Harvard University; Harvard Medical School
摘要：Transfer learning is crucial for training models that generalize to unlabeled target populations using labeled source data, especially in real-world studies where label scarcity and covariate shift are common. While most research focuses on model estimation, there is limited literature on transfer inference for model accuracy despite its importance. We introduce a novel Doubly Robust Augmented Model Accuracy Transfer Inferen Ce (DRAMATIC) method for point and interval estimation of commonly us...
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作者：Joseph, V. Roshan
作者单位：University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology
摘要：This article proposes a new kriging that has a rational form. It is shown that the generalized least squares estimator of the mean from rational kriging is much more well behaved than that of ordinary kriging. Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification for rational kriging are proposed using a Gaussian process framework. A generalized version of rational kriging is also proposed, which includes ordinary and rational kriging as special cases. Extensive simulations carried out over a wi...
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作者：Wang, Tengyao; Dobriban, Edgar; Gataric, Milana; Samworth, Richard J.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Pennsylvania; University of Cambridge; CRUK Cambridge Institute; Cancer Research UK
摘要：We propose a new method for high-dimensional semi-supervised learning problems based on the careful aggregation of the results of a low-dimensional procedure applied to many axis-aligned random projections of the data. Our primary goal is to identify important variables for distinguishing between the classes; existing low-dimensional methods can then be applied for final class assignment. To this end, we score projections according to their class-distinguishing ability; for instance, motivated...
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作者：Yang, Yachong; Kuchibhotla, Arun Kumar
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：Conformal prediction is a generic methodology for finite-sample valid distribution-free prediction. This technique has garnered a lot of attention in the literature partly because it can be applied with any machine learning algorithm that provides point predictions to yield valid prediction regions. Of course, the efficiency (width/volume) of the resulting prediction region depends on the performance of the machine learning algorithm. In the context of point prediction, several techniques (suc...
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作者：Zhai, Qingqing; Ye, Zhisheng; Li, Cheng; Revie, Matthew; Dunson, David
作者单位：Shanghai University; National University of Singapore; National University of Singapore; University of Strathclyde; Duke University
摘要：Many lifeline infrastructure systems consist of thousands of components configured in a complex directed network. Disruption of the infrastructure constitutes a recurrent failure process over a directed network. Statistical inference for such network recurrence data is challenging because of the large number of nodes with irregular connections among them. Motivated by 16 years of Scottish Water operation records, we propose a network Gamma-Poisson Autoregressive NHPP (GPAN) model for recurrent...
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作者：Hyun, Sangwon
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
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作者：Gioia, V.; Fasiolo, M.; Browell, J.; Bellio, R.
作者单位：University of Trieste; University of Bristol; University of Glasgow; University of Udine
摘要：Forecasts of regional electricity net-demand, consumption minus embedded generation, are an essential input for reliable and economic power system operation, and energy trading. While such forecasts are typically performed region by region, operations such as managing power flows require spatially coherent joint forecasts, which account for cross-regional dependencies. Here, we forecast the joint distribution of net-demand across the 14 regions constituting Great Britain's electricity network....
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作者：Guo, Xu; Li, Runze; Zhang, Zhe; Zou, Changliang
作者单位：Beijing Normal University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Nankai University
摘要：This article aims to develop an effective model-free inference procedure for high-dimensional data. We first reformulate the hypothesis testing problem via sufficient dimension reduction framework. With the aid of new reformulation, we propose a new test statistic and show that its asymptotic distribution is chi(2) distribution whose degree of freedom does not depend on the unknown population distribution. We further conduct power analysis under local alternative hypotheses. In addition, we st...
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作者：Zhong, Peng; Brunner, Manuela; Opitz, Thomas; Huser, Raphael
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research; INRAE; King Abdullah University of Science & Technology
摘要：Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes, whose investigation often directly relies on simulations of precipitation from climate models. Here, we use a different strategy to investigate how future changes in spatial extents of precipitation extremes differ across climate zones and seasons in two river...
