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作者：Bartos, Frantisek; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Godmann, Henrik R.; Sahrani, Amir; Leunk, David Klein; Gui, Pierre Y.; Voss, David; Ullah, Kaleem; Zoubek, Malte; Nippold, Franziska; Aust, Frederik; Vieira, Felipe Fontana; Islam, Chris-Gabriel; Zoubek, Anton J.; Shabani, Sara; Petter, Jonas; Roos, Ingeborg B.; Finnemann, Adam; Lob, Aaron B.; Hoffstadt, Madlen F.; Nak, Jason; de Ron, Jill; Derks, Koen; Huth, Karoline; Terpstra, Sjoerd; Bastelica, Thomas; Matetovici, Magda; Ott, Vincent L.; Zetea, Andreea S.; Karnbach, Katharina; Donzallaz, Michelle C.; John, Arne; Moore, Roy M.; Assion, Franziska; van Bork, Riet; Leidinger, Theresa E.; Zhao, Xiaochang; Motaghi, Adrian Karami; Pan, Ting; Armstrong, Hannah; Peng, Tianqi; Bialas, Mara; Pang, Joyce Y. -C.; Fu, Bohan; Yang, Shujun; Lin, Xiaoyi; Sleiffer, Dana; Bognar, Miklos; Aczel, Balazs; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; University of Amsterdam; Universitat Kassel; KU Leuven; University of Gottingen; Hasselt University; Justus Liebig University Giessen; University of Amsterdam; University of Amsterdam; University of Zurich; Nyenrode Business University; University of Amsterdam; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Utrecht University; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - National Institute for Biology (INSB); Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (Inserm); Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1; Universite Jean Monnet; University of Amsterdam; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Radboud University Nijmegen; Eotvos Lorand University; Eotvos Lorand University
摘要：Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. We collected 350,757 coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing developed by Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery (DHM; 2007). The model asserts that when people flip an ordinary coin, it tends to land on the same side it started. Our data support this prediction: the coins landed on the same side more often than not, Pr(same side...
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作者：Lunde, Robert; Levina, Elizaveta; Zhu, Ji
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：An important problem in network analysis is predicting a node attribute using both network covariates, such as graph embedding coordinates or local subgraph counts, and conventional node covariates, such as demographic characteristics. While standard regression methods that make use of both types of covariates may be used for prediction, statistical inference is complicated by the fact that the nodal summary statistics are often dependent in complex ways. We show that under a mild joint exchan...
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作者：Zhang, Shushu; He, Xuming; Tan, Kean Ming; Zhou, Wen-Xin
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Washington University (WUSTL); University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital
摘要：Expected shortfall is defined as the average over the tail below (or above) a certain quantile of a probability distribution. Expected shortfall regression provides powerful tools for learning the relationship between a response variable and a set of covariates while exploring the heterogeneous effects of the covariates. In the health disparity research, for example, the lower/upper tail of the conditional distribution of a health-related outcome, given high-dimensional covariates, is often of...
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作者：Catalano, Marta; Fasano, Augusto; Giordano, Matteo; Rebaudo, Giovanni
作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University; University of Turin
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作者：Cheung, Li C.
作者单位：National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Cancer Institute (NCI); NIH National Cancer Institute- Division of Cancer Epidemiology & Genetics
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作者：Argiento, Raffaele; Filippi-Mazzola, Edoardo; Paci, Lucia
作者单位：University of Bergamo; Universita della Svizzera Italiana; Catholic University of the Sacred Heart
摘要：A model-based approach is developed for clustering categorical data with no natural ordering. The proposed method exploits the Hamming distance to define a family of probability mass functions to model the data. The elements of this family are then considered as kernels of a finite mixture model with an unknown number of components. Conjugate Bayesian inference has been derived for the parameters of the Hamming distribution model. The mixture is framed in a Bayesian nonparametric setting, and ...
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作者：Godichon-Baggioni, A.; Nguyen, D.; Tran, M. -n.
作者单位：Universite Paris Cite; Sorbonne Universite; Marist College; University of Sydney
摘要：This article introduces a method for efficiently approximating the inverse of the Fisher information matrix, a crucial step in achieving effective variational Bayes inference. A notable aspect of our approach is the avoidance of analytically computing the Fisher information matrix and its explicit inversion. Instead, we introduce an iterative procedure for generating a sequence of matrices that converge to the inverse of Fisher information. The natural gradient variational Bayes algorithm with...
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作者：Biron-Lattes, Miguel; Campbell, Trevor; Bouchard-Cote, Alexandre
作者单位：University of British Columbia
摘要：Simulated Tempering (ST) is an MCMC algorithm for complex target distributions that operates on a path between the target and a more amenable reference distribution. Crucially, if the reference enables iid sampling, ST is regenerative and can be parallelized across independent tours. However, the difficulty of tuning ST has hindered its widespread adoption. In this work, we develop a simple nonreversible ST (NRST) algorithm, a general theoretical analysis of ST, and an automated tuning procedu...
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作者：Painsky, Amichai
作者单位：Tel Aviv University
摘要：Consider a finite sample from an unknown distribution over a countable alphabet. Unobserved events are alphabet symbols which do not appear in the sample. Estimating the probabilities of unobserved events is a basic problem in statistics and related fields, which was extensively studied in the context of point estimation. In this work we introduce a novel interval estimation scheme for unobserved events. Our proposed framework applies selective inference, as we construct confidence intervals (...
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作者：Fan, Jianqing; Lou, Zhipeng; Wang, Weichen; Yu, Mengxin
作者单位：Princeton University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; University of Hong Kong; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Motivated by many applications such as online recommendations and individual choices, this article considers ranking inference of n items based on the observed data on the top choice among M randomly selected items at each trial. This is a useful modification of the Plackett-Luce model for M-way ranking with only the top choice observed and is an extension of the celebrated Bradley-Terry-Luce model that corresponds to M = 2. Under a uniform sampling scheme in which any M distinguished items ar...
