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作者：Kim, Shonghyun; Lim, Chae Young; Rho, Yeonwoo
作者单位：Seoul National University (SNU); Michigan Technological University
摘要：Cybersecurity is an important issue given the increasing risks due to cyberattacks in many areas. Cyberattacks could result in huge losses such as data breaches, failures in the control systems of infrastructures, physical damages in manufacturing industries, etc. As a result, cybersecurity-related research has grown rapidly for in-depth analysis. One main interest is to understand the correlated nature of cyberattack data. To understand such characteristics, we propose a spatio-temporal model...
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作者：Su, Erica; Weiss, Robert E.; Nouri-Mahdavi, Kouros; Holbrook, Andrew J.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California Los Angeles Medical Center; David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA
摘要：We model longitudinal macular thickness measurements to monitor the course of glaucoma and prevent vision loss due to disease progression. The macular thickness varies over a 6 x 6 grid of locations on the retina, with additional variability arising from the imaging process at each visit. Currently, ophthalmologists estimate slopes using repeated simple linear regression for each subject and location. To estimate slopes more precisely, we develop a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for multipl...
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作者：Manole, Tudor; Bryant, Patrick; Alison, John; Kuusela, Mikael; Wasserman, Larry
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Carnegie Mellon University; Carnegie Mellon University; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：We study the problem of data-driven background estimation, arising in the search of physics signals predicted by the Standard Model at the Large Hadron Collider. Our work is motivated by the search for the production of pairs of Higgs bosons decaying into four bottom quarks. A number of other physical processes, known as background, also share the same final state. The data arising in this problem is, therefore, a mixture of unlabeled background and signal events, and the primary aim of the an...
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作者：Wrobel, Julia; Sauerbrei, Britton; Kirk, Eric A.; Guo, Jian-Zhon; Hantman, Adam; Goldsmith, Jeff
作者单位：Emory University; University System of Ohio; Case Western Reserve University; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine; Columbia University
摘要：We are motivated by a study that seeks to better understand the dynamic relationship between muscle activation and paw position during locomotion. For each gait cycle in this experiment, activation in the biceps and triceps is measured continuously and in parallel with paw position as a mouse trotted on a treadmill. We propose an innovative general regression method that draws from both ordinary differential equations and functional data analysis to model the relationship between these functio...
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作者：Brumberg, Katherine; Small, Dylan s.; Rosenbaum, Paul r.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Do the impacts that occur when playing high school football have concussive effects that accelerate cognitive decline late in life? We examine this possibility using newly available cognitive data describing people in 2020 who graduated high school in 1957. Someone who was 18 in 1957 would be 81 in 2020. For this comparison we develop a new design for an observational study, called a triples design, and discuss its advantages and construction. A triples design consists of M blocks of size 3, w...
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作者：DE Silva, Dilishiya; Fisher, Rebecca; Radford, Ben; Hompson, Helen; Mcree, James
作者单位：Queensland University of Technology (QUT); University of Western Australia; Australian Institute of Marine Science
摘要：Optimal sampling strategies are critical for surveys of deeper coral reef and shoal systems due to the significant cost of accessing and field sampling these remote and poorly understood ecosystems. Additionally, wellestablished standard diver-based sampling techniques used in shallow reef systems are not feasible at greater depths. In this study, we develop a Bayesian design strategy to optimise sampling for a shoal deep reef system using three years of pilot data. Bayesian designs are typica...
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作者：Osephs, Athaniel; Eng, Ida; Rawford, Orrest w.
作者单位：North Carolina State University; Microsoft; Yale University
摘要：Most businesses impose a supervisory hierarchy on employees to faemployee communication patterns within workplaces tend to emerge more naturally as a consequence of both supervisory relationships and the needs of the organization. What then is the relationship between a formal organizational structure and the emergent communications between its employees? Understanding the nature of this relationship is critical for the successful management of an organization. While scholars of organizational...
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作者：De Nicolo, Silvia; Fabrizi, Enrico; Gardini, Aldo
作者单位：University of Bologna; Catholic University of the Sacred Heart; IRCCS Policlinico Gemelli
摘要：The paper targets the estimation of a poverty rate at the upazila level in Bangladesh through the use of demographic and health survey (DHS) data. Upazilas are administrative regions equivalent to counties or boroughs whose sample sizes are not large enough to provide reliable estimates or are even absent. We tackle this issue by proposing a small-area estimation model complementing survey data with remote sensing information at the area level. We specify an extended Beta mixed regression mode...
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作者：Tak, Hyungsuk; Ding, Xuheng
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Wuhan University
摘要：We propose a Bayesian meta-analysis to infer the current expansion rate of the Universe, called the Hubble constant (H0), via time delay cosmography. Inputs of the meta-analysis are estimates of two properties for each pair of gravitationally lensed images; time delay and Fermat potential difference estimates with their standard errors. A meta-analysis can be appealing in practice because obtaining each estimate from even a single lens system involves substantial human efforts, and thus estima...
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作者：Kobayashi, Genya; Sugasawa, Shonosuke; Kawakubo, Yuki; Han, Dongu; Choi, Taeryon
作者单位：Meiji University; Keio University; Chiba University; Korea University
摘要：This paper proposes a novel methodology called the mixture of Bayesian predictive syntheses (MBPS) for multiple time series count data for the challenging task of predicting the numbers of COVID-19 inpatients and isolated cases in Japan and Korea at the subnational level. MBPS combines a set of predictive models and partitions the multiple time series into clusters based on their contribution to predicting the outcome. In this way MBPS leverages the shared information within each cluster and i...
