作者：GILARDONI, GL; CLAYTON, MK
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We consider a group of k experts each having a subjective probability distribution for a parameter theta. If the members of the group are allowed to know the others' opinions and they appreciate the others' skills, it is likely that each expert will modify his distribution to account for this new information. This process can be continued indefinitely leading to an iterative pooling process. The main issue is whether the experts' distributions will converge towards a common limit or consensus....
