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作者：Jose, Victor Richmond R.; Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Jr.
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of Virginia
摘要：We introduce an alternative to the popular linear opinion pool for combining individual probability forecasts. One of the well-known problems with the linear opinion pool is that it can be poorly calibrated. It tends toward underconfidence as the crowd's diversity increases, i.e., as the variance in the individuals' means increases. To address this calibration problem, we propose the exterior-trimmed opinion pool. To form this pool, forecasts with low and high means, or cumulative distribution...
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作者：Milkman, Katherine L.; Minson, Julia A.; Volpp, Kevin G. M.
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Harvard University
摘要：We introduce and evaluate the effectiveness of temptation bundling-a method for simultaneously tackling two types of self-control problems by harnessing consumption complementarities. We describe a field experiment measuring the impact of bundling instantly gratifying but guilt-inducing want experiences (enjoying page-turner audiobooks) with valuable should behaviors providing delayed rewards (exercising). We explore whether such bundles increase should behaviors and whether people would pay t...
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作者：Duan, Jin-Chuan; Zhang, Weiqi
作者单位：National University of Singapore; National University of Singapore; University of Munster
摘要：A method for computing forward-looking market risk premium is developed in this paper. We first derive a theoretical expression that links forward-looking risk premium to investors' risk aversion and forward-looking volatility, skewness, and kurtosis of cumulative return. In addition, investors' risk aversion is theoretically linked to volatility spread, defined as the gap between the risk- neutral volatility deduced from option data and the physical return volatility exhibited by return data....
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作者：Subramanian, Upender; Raju, Jagmohan S.; Zhang, Z. John
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Many firms today manage their existing customers differentially based on profit potential, providing fewer incentives to less profitable customers and firing unprofitable customers. Although researchers and industry experts advocate this practice, results have been mixed. We examine this practice explicitly accounting for competition and find that some conventional prescriptions may not always hold. We analyze a setting where customers differ in their cost to serve. We find that when a firm ca...
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作者：Tambe, Prasanna; Hitt, Lorin M.
作者单位：New York University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：The movement of information technology (IT) workers among firms is believed to be an important mechanism by which IT-related innovations diffuse throughout the economy. We use a newly developed source of employee microdata-an online resume database-to model IT workers' mobility patterns. We find that firms derive significant productivity benefits from the IT investments of other firms from which they hire IT labor. Our estimates indicate that over the last two decades, productivity spillovers ...
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作者：Seamans, Robert; Zhu, Feng
作者单位：New York University; Harvard University
摘要：How do firms respond to entry in multi-sided markets? We address this question by studying the impact of Craigslist, a website providing classified-advertising services, on local U.S. newspapers. We exploit temporal and geographical variation in Craigslist's entry to show that newspapers with greater reliance on classified-ad revenue experience a larger drop in classified-ad rates after Craigslist's entry. The impact of Craigslist's entry on the classified-ad side appears to propagate to other...
