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作者：Keuschnigg, Marc; Ganser, Christian
作者单位：University of Munich
摘要：In the last decade, interest in the wisdom of crowds effect has gained momentum in both organizational research and corporate practice. Crowd wisdom relies on the aggregation of independent judgments. The accuracy of a group's aggregate prediction rises with the number, ability, and diversity of its members. We investigate these variables' relative importance for collective prediction using agent-based simulation. We replicate the diversity trumps ability proposition for large groups, showing ...
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作者：Atanasov, Pavel; Rescober, Phillip; Stone, Eric; Swift, Samuel A.; Servan-Schreiber, Emile; Tetlock, Philip; Ungar, Lyle; Mellers, Barbara
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 participants made forecasts on 261 events over two seasons of a geopolitical prediction tournament. Forecasters were randomly assigned to either prediction markets (continuous double auction markets) in which theywere ranked based on earnings, or prediction polls in which they submitted probability judgments, independently or i...
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作者：Berger, Loic; Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo
作者单位：Fondazione Mattei; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC); Polytechnic University of Milan
摘要：We propose a robust risk management approach to deal with the problem of catastrophic climate change that incorporates both risk and model uncertainty. Using an analytical model of abatement, we show how aversion to model uncertainty influences the optimal level of mitigation. We disentangle the role of preferences from the structure of model uncertainty, which we define by means of a simple measure of disagreement across models. With data from an expert elicitation about climate change catast...
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作者：Schlereth, Christian; Skiera, Bernd
作者单位：WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：Discrete choice experiments such as choice-based conjoint and dual response are popular preference elicitation methods, yet, they can suffer from context effects, extreme response behavior, and problems with estimating consumers' willingness to pay accurately when the purchase probability is high. This study proposes two new features to avoid these limits: (a) strictly separating all forced and all free choice questions and (b) an adaptive mechanism to select fewer, but more informative, free ...
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作者：Yonker, Scott E.
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：I examine the role of geography in the market for CEOs and find that firms hire locally five times more often than expected if geography were irrelevant to the matching process. This local matching bias is widespread and exists even among the largest U.S. firms. Tests reveal that both labor supply and demand influence local matching. Compensation and unforced turnover are lower for local than for nonlocal CEOs, and the compensation of local CEOs depends on local labor market factors, unlike th...
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作者：Keswani, Aneel; Stolin, David; Tran, Anh L.
作者单位：City St Georges, University of London; Universite Federale Toulouse Midi-Pyrenees (ComUE); Universite de Toulouse; TBS Education
摘要：The financial sector is unique in being largely self-governed: the majority of financial firms' shares are held by other financial institutions. This raises the possibility that the monitoring of financial firms is especially undermined by conflicts of interest as a result of personal and professional links between these firms and their shareholders. To investigate this possibility, we scrutinize the aspect of the financial sector's self-governance that is directly observable: mutual fund comp...
