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作者：Tiefenbeck, Verena; Goette, Lorenz; Degen, Kathrin; Tasic, Vojkan; Fleisch, Elgar; Lalive, Rafael; Staake, Thorsten
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Bonn; University of Lausanne; University of St Gallen; Otto Friedrich University Bamberg
摘要：Inattention and imperfect information bias behavior toward the salient and immediately visible. This distortion creates costs for individuals, the organizations in which they work, and society at large. We show that an effective way to overcome this bias is by making the implications of one's behavior salient in real time, while individuals can directly adapt. In a large-scale field experiment, we gave participants real-time feedback on the resource consumption of a daily, energy-intensive act...
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作者：Feunou, Bruno; Fontaine, Jean-Sebastien
作者单位：Bank of Canada
摘要：Existing results show that (i) lagged forward rates help predict bond returns and (ii) modern Markovian dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) cannot match the evidence [Cochrane JH, Piazzesi M (2005) Bond risk premia. Amer. Econom. Rev. 95(1): 138-160]. We develop the family of conditional mean DTSMs where the dynamics depend on current yields and their history through a moving-average component. Our preferred conditional mean model combines one moving average with the usual three Gaussian ris...
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作者：Johnson, Travis L.; So, Eric C.
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We develop and implement a new measure of information asymmetry among traders. Our measure is based on the intuition that informed traders are more likely than uninformed traders to generate abnormal volume in options or stock markets. We formalize this intuition theoretically and compute the resulting multimarket information asymmetry measure (MIA) for firm-days as a function of unsigned volume totals and without estimating a structural model. Empirically, MIA has many desirable properties: i...
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作者：Lee, Hau L.; Tang, Christopher S.
作者单位：Stanford University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：By examining the state of operations management (OM) research from 1980 to 2015 and by considering three new industry trends, we propose new OM research directions in socially and environmentally responsible value chains that fundamentally expand existing OM research in three dimensions: (a) contexts (emerging and developing economies); (b) objectives (economic, environmental, and social responsibility); and (c) stakeholders (producers, consumers, shareholders, for-profit/nonprofit/social ente...
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作者：Bolton, Gary E.; Katok, Elena
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas
摘要：What is the most credible way to convey the risk in expert forecasts to the nonexpert decision makers who use the forecast? We test two ways to communicate this information: provide an unequivocal recommendation or equivocate by providing the probability of the uncertain event of interest. We use a simple game in which human subjects (the forecast users) decide whether to take a risk of a loss or pay a cost to avoid the risk. We find that the influence of forecast information differs depending...
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作者：Rahmandad, Hazhir; Henderson, Rebecca; Repenning, Nelson P.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Recent work suggests that an excessive focus on managing the numbers-delivering quarterly earnings at the expense of longer-term performance-makes it difficult for firms to make the investments necessary to build competitive advantage. Short termism has been blamed for everything from the decline of the U.S. automobile industry to the low penetration of techniques such as total quality management and continuous improvement. Yet a significant body of research suggests that firms that sacrifice ...
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作者：Lam, Henry
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Procedures in assessing the impact of serial dependency on performance analysis are usually built on parametrically specified models. In this paper, we propose a robust, nonparametric approach to carry out this assessment, by computing the worst-case deviation of the performance measure due to arbitrary dependence. The approach is based on optimizations, posited on the model space, that have constraints specifying the level of dependency measured by a nonparametric distance to some nominal ind...
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作者：Ban, Gah-Yi; El Karoui, Noureddine; Lim, Andrew E. B.
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National University of Singapore; National University of Singapore
摘要：The portfolio optimization model has limited impact in practice because of estimation issues when applied to real data. To address this, we adapt two machine learning methods, regularization and cross-validation, for portfolio optimization. First, we introduce performance-based regularization (PBR), where the idea is to constrain the sample variances of the estimated portfolio risk and return, which steers the solution toward one associated with less estimation error in the performance. We con...
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作者：Cui, Tony Haitao; Zhang, Yinghao
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University System of Ohio; University of Cincinnati
摘要：We examine a supply chain with a single supplier and multiple retailers to predict retailers' actual ordering behaviors. If retailer orders exceed supplier capacity, a proportional rationing rule applies to capacity allocation among retailers. We propose a behavior model based on cognitive hierarchy theory, in which retailers with different levels of strategic-reasoning capabilities form heterogeneous beliefs about other players' capabilities when choosing their orders. This behavioral model y...
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作者：Anbarci, Nejat; Feltovich, Nick
作者单位：Deakin University; Monash University
摘要：We use a competitive search (price-posting) framework to experimentally examine how buyer information and fairness perceptions affect market behavior. We observe that moving from zero to one uninformed buyers leads to higher prices in both 2 (seller) x 2 (buyer) and 2 x 3 markets: the former as predicted under standard preferences, the latter the opposite of the theoretical prediction. Perceptions of fair prices-elicited in the experiment-are a powerful driver of behavior. For buyers, fair pri...
