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作者：Bastani, Hamsa; Bayati, Mohsen; Khosravi, Khashayar
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Stanford University; Stanford University
摘要：The contextual bandit literature has traditionally focused on algorithms that address the exploration-exploitation tradeoff. In particular, greedy algorithms that exploit current estimates without any exploration may be suboptimal in general. However, exploration-free greedy algorithms are desirable in practical settings where exploration may be costly or unethical (e.g., clinical trials). Surprisingly, we find that a simple greedy algorithm can be rate optimal (achieves asymptotically optimal...
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作者：Hathaway, Brett A.; Emadi, Seyed M.; Deshpande, Vinayak
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：Although call centers have recently invested in callback technology, the effects of this innovation on call center performance are not clearly understood. In this paper, we take a data-driven approach to quantify the operational impact of offering callbacks under a variety of callback policies. To achieve this goal, we formulate a structural model of the caller decision-making process under a callback option and impute their underlying preferences from data. Our model estimates shed light on c...
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作者：Reza, Sadat; Ho, Hillbun; Ling, Rich; Shi, Hongyan
作者单位：Nanyang Technological University; University of Technology Sydney
摘要：Although the use of free samples is extensive across industries, the effects of free samples across individuals with varying levels of usage have yet to be systematically examined. The models discussed in the literature consider targeting only the current nonusers of a product. In this research, we examine the question of targeting the current users both analytically and empirically for an experience good. Our analytical discussions highlight the reasons why some current users may be effective...
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作者：Vera, Alberto; Banerjee, Siddhartha
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：We develop a new framework for designing online policies given access to an oracle providing statistical information about an off-line benchmark. Having access to such prediction oracles enables simple and natural Bayesian selection policies and raises the question as to how these policies perform in different settings. Our work makes two important contributions toward this question: First, we develop a general technique we call compensated coupling, which can be used to derive bounds on the e...
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作者：Gupta, Vishal; Rusmevichientong, Paat
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作者：Ho, Emily H.; Hagmann, David; Loewenstein, George
作者单位：Fordham University; Northwestern University; Harvard University; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：Advances in medical testing and widespread access to the internet have made it easier than ever to obtain information. Yet, when it comes to some of the most important decisions in life, people often choose to remain ignorant for a variety of psychological and economic reasons. We design and validate an information preferences scale to measure an individual's desire to obtain or avoid information that may be unpleasant but could improve future decisions. The scale measures information preferen...
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作者：Simchi-Levi, David
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
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作者：Wang, Xin; Cho, Soo-Haeng; Scheller-Wolf, Alan
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：When a government agency considers tightening a standard on a pollutant, the agency often takes into account the proportion of firms that are able to meet the new standard (what we refer to as the industry's voluntary adoption level) because a higher proportion indicates a more feasible standard. We develop a novel model of regulation in which the probability of a stricter standard being enacted increases with an industry's voluntary adoption level. In addition, in our model, the benefit of a ...
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作者：Berardi, Andrea; Markovich, Michael; Plazzi, Alberto; Tamoni, Andrea
作者单位：Universita Ca Foscari Venezia; Universita della Svizzera Italiana; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Rutgers University Newark
摘要：We show that the difference between the natural rate of interest and the current level of monetary policy stance, which we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises the R-2, and restores countercyclical variation in bond risk premia that is otherwise missed by forward rates. Consistent with the argument that CG captures the effect of real imbalances on the path of r...
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作者：Ghili, Soheil; Klibanoff, Peter
作者单位：Yale University; Yale University; Northwestern University
摘要：Consider a canonical problem in choice under uncertainty: choosing from a convex feasible set consisting of all (Anscombe-Aumann) mixtures of two acts f and g, {alpha f + (1 - alpha)g : alpha is an element of [0, 1]}. We propose a preference condition, monotonicity in optimal mixtures, which says that surely improving the act f (in the sense of weak dominance) makes the optimal weight(s) on f weakly higher. We use a stylized model of a sales agent reacting to incentives to illustrate the tight...
