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作者：Liu, Yue; Fang, Ethan X.; Lu, Junwei
作者单位：Harvard University; Duke University; Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
摘要：We propose a novel combinatorial inference framework to conduct general uncertainty quantification in ranking problems. We consider the widely adopted Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model, where each item is assigned a positive preference score that determines the Bernoulli distributions of pairwise comparisons' outcomes. Our proposedmethod aims to infer general ranking properties of the BTLmodel. The general ranking properties include the local properties such as if an item is preferred over anothe...
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作者：Li, Michael Lingzhi; Bouardi, Hamza Tazi; Lami, Omar Skali; Trikalinos, Thomas A.; Trichakis, Nikolaos; Bertsimas, Dimitris
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Brown University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We developed DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model for predicting detected cases and deaths in the prevaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model allows for underdetection of infections and effects of government interventions. We have applied DELPHI across more than 200 geographical areas since early April 2020 and recorded 6% and 11% two-week, out-of-sample median mean absolute percentage error on predicting cases and deaths, respectively. DELPHI compares favorably with other top COVI...
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作者：Zhou, Zhengyuan; Athey, Susan; Wager, Stefan
作者单位：New York University; Stanford University
摘要：In many settings, a decision maker wishes to learn a rule, or policy, that maps from observable characteristics of an individual to an action. Examples include selecting offers, prices, advertisements, or emails to send to consumers, choosing a bid to submit in a contextual first-price auctions, and determining which medication to prescribe to a patient. In this paper, we study the offline multi-action policy learning problem with observational data and where the policy may need to respect bud...
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作者：Mazumder, Rahul; Radchenko, Peter; Dedieuc, Antoine
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Sydney
摘要：We study a seemingly unexpected and relatively less understood overfitting aspect of a fundamental tool in sparse linear modeling-best subset selection-which minimizes the residual sum of squares subject to a constraint on the number of nonzero coefficients. Whereas the best subset selection procedure is often perceived as the gold standard in sparse learning when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high, its predictive performance deteriorates when the SNR is low. In particular, it is outperfo...
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作者：Balseiro, Santiago R.; Lu, Haihao; Mirrokni, Vahab
作者单位：Columbia University; Alphabet Inc.; Google Incorporated; University of Chicago
摘要：Online allocation problems with resource constraints are central problems in revenue management and online advertising. In these problems, requests arrive sequentially during a finite horizon and, for each request, a decision maker needs to choose an action that consumes a certain amount of resources and generates reward. The objective is to maximize cumulative rewards subject to a constraint on the total consumption of resources. In this paper, we consider a data-driven setting in which the r...
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作者：Varma, Sushil Mahavir; Bumpensanti, Pornpawee; Maguluri, Siva Theja; Wang, He
作者单位：University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology
摘要：Motivated by applications from gig economy and online marketplaces, we study a two-sided queueing system under joint pricing and matching controls. The queueing systemismodeled by a bipartite graph, where the vertices represent customer or server types and the edges represent compatible customer-server pairs. Both customers and servers sequentially arrive to the system and join separate queues according to their types. The arrival rates of different types depend on the prices set by the system...
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作者：Long, Daniel Zhuoyu; Sim, Melvyn; Zhou, Minglong
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong; National University of Singapore; Fudan University
摘要：We present a general framework for robust satisficing that favors solutions for which a risk-aware objective function would best attain an acceptable target even when the actual probability distribution deviates from the empirical distribution. The satisficing decision maker specifies an acceptable target, or loss of optimality compared with the empirical optimization model, as a trade-off for the model's ability to withstand greater uncertainty. We axiomatize the decision criterion associated...
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作者：Lim, Eunji; Glynn, Peter W.
作者单位：Adelphi University; Stanford University
摘要：This paper is concerned with the use of simulation in computing predictors in settings in which real-world observations are collected. A major challenge is that the state description underlying the simulation will typically include information that is not observed in the real system. This makes it challenging to initialize simulations that are aligned with the most recent observation collected in the real-world system, especially when the simulation does not visit the most recently observed va...
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作者：Loehndorf, Nils; Wozabalb, David
作者单位：University of Luxembourg; Technical University of Munich
摘要：We consider the problem of a storage owner who trades in a multisettlement electricity market comprising an auction-based day-ahead market and a continuous intraday market. We show in a stylized model that a coordinated policy that reserves capacity for the intraday market is optimal and that the gap to a sequential policy increases with intraday price volatility and market liquidity. To assess the value of coordination in a realistic setting, we develop amultistage stochastic programfor day-a...
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作者：Xie, Jingui; Loke, Gar Goei; Sim, Melvyn; Lam, Shao Wei
作者单位：Technical University of Munich; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; National University of Singapore
摘要：Bed shortages in hospitals usually have a negative impact on patient satisfaction and medical outcomes. In practice, healthcare managers often use bed occupancy rates (BORs) as a metric to understand bed utilization, which is insufficient in capturing the risk of bed shortages. We propose the bed shortage index (BSI) to capture more facets of bed shortage risk than traditional metrics such as the occupancy rate, the probability of shortages, and expected shortages. The BSI is based on the risk...
