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作者：Enikolopov, Ruben; Makarin, Alexey; Petrova, Maria
作者单位：New Economic School
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作者：Gunsilius, F. F.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：The method of synthetic controls is a fundamental tool for evaluating causal effects of policy changes in settings with observational data. In many settings where it is applicable, researchers want to identify causal effects of policy changes on a treated unit at an aggregate level while having access to data at a finer granularity. This article proposes an extension of the synthetic controls estimator that takes advantage of this additional structure and provides nonparametric estimates of th...
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作者：Vayanos, Dimitri; Vila, Jean-Luc
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Jarosch, Gregor
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Job loss comes with large present value earnings losses which elude workhorse models of unemployment and labor market policy. I propose a parsimonious model of a frictional labor market in which jobs differ in terms of unemployment risk and workers search off- and on-the-job. This gives rise to a job ladder with slippery bottom rungs where unemployment spells beget unemployment spells. I allow for human capital to respond to time spent out of work and estimate the framework on German Social Se...
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作者：Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus; Hurtado, Samuel; Nuno, Galo
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Banco de Espana
摘要：We postulate a continuous-time heterogeneous agent model with a financial sector and households to study the nonlinear linkages between aggregate and financial variables. In our model, the interaction between the supply of bonds by the financial sector and the precautionary demand for bonds by households produces significant endogenous aggregate risk. This risk makes the economy transition between a high-leverage region and a low-leverage region, which, in turn, creates state dependence in imp...
