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作者：Wager, Stefan
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：We use the martingale construction of Luedtke and van der Laan (2016) to develop tests for the presence of treatment heterogeneity. The resulting sequential validation approach can be instantiated using various validation metrics, such as BLPs, GATES, QINI curves, etc., and provides an alternative to cross-validation-like cross-fold application of these metrics. This note was prepared as a comment on the Fisher-Schultz paper by Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fern & aacute;ndez-Val, forthcom...
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作者：Chernozhukov, Victor; Demirer, Mert; Duflo, Esther; Fernandez-Val, Ivan
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Boston University
摘要：We propose strategies to estimate and make inference on key features of heterogeneous effects in randomized experiments. These key features include best linear predictors of the effects using machine learning proxies, average effects sorted by impact groups, and average characteristics of most and least impacted units. The approach is valid in high-dimensional settings, where the effects are proxied (but not necessarily consistently estimated) by predictive and causal machine learning methods....
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作者：Bertrand, Marianne; Hsieh, Chang-Tai; Tsivanidis, Nick
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：India's Industrial Disputes Act (IDA) requires large manufacturing plants to pay substantial costs if they wish to shrink their workforce. Since the early 2000s, these large plants have dramatically increased their use of contract workers who are not subject to these regulatory constraints. Between 2000 and 2015, the contract labor share in non-managerial employment nearly doubled at establishments with more than 100 workers (from 21 to 40 percentage points), while it only increased from 14 to...
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作者：Nelson, Scott T.
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：The 2009 CARD Act limited credit card lenders' ability to raise borrowers' interest rates on the basis of new information. Pricing became less responsive to public and private signals of borrowers' risk and demand characteristics, and price dispersion fell by one-third. I estimate the efficiency and distributional effects of this shift toward more pooled pricing. Prices fell for high-risk and price-inelastic consumers, but prices rose elsewhere in the market and newly exceeded willingness to p...
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作者：Imai, Kosuke; Li, Michael Lingzhi
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard University; Harvard University
摘要：We examine the split-sample robust inference (SSRI) methodology introduced by Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fernandez-Val for quantifying uncertainty in heterogeneous treatment effect estimates produced by machine learning (ML) models. Although SSRI properly accounts for the additional variability due to sample splitting, its computational cost becomes prohibitive with complex ML models. We propose an alternative approach based on randomization inference (RI) that preserves the broad appli...
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作者：Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus; Hurtado, Samuel; Nuno, Galo
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Banco de Espana
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作者：Banerjee, Abhijit; Chandrasekhar, Arun G.; Dalpath, Suresh; Duflo, Esther; Floretta, John; Jackson, Matthew O.; Kannan, Harini; Loza, Francine; Sankar, Anirudh; Schrimpf, Anna; Shrestha, Maheshwor
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; The Santa Fe Institute; The World Bank
摘要：Policymakers often choose a policy bundle that is a combination of different interventions in different dosages. We develop a new technique-treatment variant aggregation (TVA)-to select a policy from a large factorial design. TVA pools together policy variants that are not meaningfully different and prunes those deemed ineffective. This allows us to restrict attention to aggregated policy variants, consistently estimate their effects on the outcome, and estimate the best policy effect adjustin...
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作者：Hodgson, Charles; Lewis, Gregory
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop and estimate a model of consumer search with spatial learning. Consumers make inferences from previously searched objects to unsearched objects that are nearby in attribute space, generating path dependence in search sequences. The estimated model rationalizes patterns in data on online consumer search paths: search tends to converge to the chosen product in attribute space, and consumers take larger steps away from rarely purchased products. Eliminating spatial learning reduces con...
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作者：Alonso, Ricardo; Padro I Miquel, Gerard
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Yale University; Yale University
摘要：Two opposed interested parties (IPs) compete to influence citizens with heterogeneous priors which receive news items produced by a variety of sources. The IPs fight to capture the coverage conveyed in these items. We characterize the equilibrium level of capture of item as well as the equilibrium level of information transmission. Capture increases the prevalence of the ex ante most informative messages and can explain the empirical distribution of slant at the news-item level. Opposite captu...
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作者：Bhattacharya, Vivek; Illanes, Gaston; Padi, Manisha
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Fiduciary duty aims to solve principal-agent problems, and the United States is in the middle of a protracted debate surrounding the merits of extending it to all financial advisers. Leveraging a transaction-level data set of deferred annuities and state-level variation in common law fiduciary duty, we find that it raises risk-adjusted returns by 25 bp and leads to a 16% decline in the entry of affected firms. Through the lens of a model of entry and advice provision, we show that this effect ...
