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作者：Corbi, Raphael; Papaioannou, Elias; Surico, Paolo
作者单位：Universidade de Sao Paulo; University of London; London Business School; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：A series of discontinuities in the allocation mechanism of federal transfers to municipal governments in Brazil allow us to identify the causal effect of public spending on local labour markets, using a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Our estimates imply a cost per job of about 8,000 US dollars per year and a local income multiplier around two. The effect comes mostly from employment in services and is more pronounced among less financially developed municipalities.
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作者：Enke, Benjamin; Zimmermann, Florian
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Bonn
摘要：Many information structures generate correlated rather than mutually independent signals, the news media being a prime example. This article provides experimental evidence that many people neglect the resulting double-counting problem in the updating process. In consequence, beliefs are too sensitive to the ubiquitous telling and re-telling of stories and exhibit excessive swings. We identify substantial and systematic heterogeneity in the presence of the bias and investigate the underlying me...
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作者：D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier; Durrmeyer, Isis; Fevrier, Philippe
作者单位：Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole
摘要：In markets where sellers are able to price discriminate, individuals pay different prices that may be unobserved by the econometrician. This article considers the structural estimation of a demand and supply model of differentiated products with such price discrimination and limited information on prices taking the form of, e.g., observing list prices from catalogues or average prices. Within this framework, identification is achieved not only with usual moment conditions on the demand side, b...
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作者：Arieli, Itai; Mueller-Frank, Manuel
作者单位：Technion Israel Institute of Technology; University of Navarra; IESE Business School
摘要：This article provides a model of social learning where the order in which actions are taken is determined by an m-dimensional integer lattice rather than along a line as in the herding model. The observation structure is determined by a random network. Every agent links to each of his preceding lattice neighbours independently with probability p, and observes the actions of all agents that are reachable via a directed path in the realized social network. For m >= 2, we show that as p <1 goes t...
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作者：Dovis, Alessandro
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In this article, I show that the key aspects of sovereign debt crises can be rationalized as part of the efficient risk-sharing arrangement between a sovereign borrower and foreign lenders in a production economy with informational and commitment frictions. The constrained efficient allocation involves ex post inefficient outcomes that resemble sovereign default episodes in the data and can be implemented with non-contingent defaultable bonds and active maturity management. Defaults and period...
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作者：Fang, Zheng; Santos, Andres
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：This article studies an asymptotic framework for conducting inference on parameters of the form f(.0), where f is a known directionally differentiable function and.0 is estimated by <^>.n. In these settings, the asymptotic distribution of the plug- in estimator f( <^>.n) can be derived employing existing extensions to the Delta method. We show, however, that ( full) differentiability of f is a necessary and sufficient condition for bootstrap consistency whenever the limiting distribution of <^...
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作者：Morales, Eduardo; Sheu, Gloria; Zahler, Andres
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University Diego Portales
摘要：Exporting firms often enter foreign markets that are similar to their previous export destinations. We develop a dynamic model in which a firm's exports in a market may depend on how similar the market is to the firm's home country (gravity) and to its previous export destinations (extended gravity). Given the large number of export paths from which forward-looking firms may choose, we use a moment inequality approach to estimate our model. Our estimates indicate that sharing similarities with...
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作者：Draca, Mirk; Koutmeridis, Theodore; Machin, Stephen
作者单位：University of Warwick; University of Glasgow; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：To what extent does crime follow the pattern of potential gains to illegal activity? This article presents evidence on how criminals respond to this key incentive by reporting crime-price elasticities estimated from a comprehensive crime dataset containing detailed information on stolen items for London between 2002 and 2012. Evidence of significant positive crime-price elasticities are shown, for a panel of 44 consumer goods and for commodity related goods (jewellery, fuel, and metal crimes)....
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作者：Cahuc, Pierre; Carcillo, Stephane; Le Barbanchon, Thomas
作者单位：Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD); Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); IZA Institute Labor Economics; Bocconi University
摘要：This article analyses the effectiveness of hiring credits. Using comprehensive administrative data, we show that the French hiring credit, implemented during the Great Recession, had significant positive employment effects and no effects on wages. Relying on the quasi-experimental variation in labour cost triggered by the hiring credit, we estimate a structural search and matching model. Simulations of counterfactual policies show that the effectiveness of the hiring credit relied to a large e...
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作者：Abito, Jose Miguel; Salant, Yuval
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Northwestern University
摘要：Panel and experimental data are used to analyse the economic outcomes in the extended warranty market. We establish that the strong demand and high profits in this market are driven by consumers distorting the failure probability of the insured product, rather than standard risk aversion or sellers' market power. Providing information to consumers about failure probabilities significantly reduces their willingness to pay for warranties, indicating the important role of information, or lack of,...
