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作者：Caramp, Nicolas; Singh, Sanjay R.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：Safe asset shortages can expose an economy to liquidity traps. The nature of these traps is determined by the cyclicality of the bond premium. A counter-cyclical bond premium opens the possibility of expectations-driven liquidity traps in which small issuances of government debt crowd out private debt and reduce output. In contrast, when the bond premium is pro-cyclical and the economy is in a liquidity trap, government debt is expansionary. In the data, we find evidence of a counter-cyclical ...
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作者：Iovino, Luigi; Sergeyev, Dmitriy
作者单位：Bocconi University
摘要：We study the effects of central bank balance sheet policies-namely, quantitative easing and foreign exchange interventions-in a model where people form expectations through an iterative level-k thinking process. We emphasize two main theoretical results. First, under a broad set of conditions, central bank interventions are effective under level-k thinking, while they are neutral in the rational expectations equilibrium. Second, when preferences exhibit constant relative risk aversion, asset p...
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作者：Valmari, Nelli
摘要：Multiproduct firms constitute a considerable share of firms and account for an even greater share of production. Nevertheless, the vast majority of production function estimates are based on the assumption that firms are single-product manufacturers. This assumption is due to a lack of data on how firms allocate their inputs across their various product lines. I provide a strategy for estimating product-specific input allocations and production functions of multiproduct firms involved in monop...
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作者：Dias, Mateus; Rocha, Rudi; Soares, Rodrigo R.
作者单位：Princeton University; Getulio Vargas Foundation
摘要：This paper documents an externality from the agricultural use of the most widely applied herbicide in the world-glyphosate-on birth outcomes of surrounding populations. We focus on the subclinical effects of water contamination in areas distant from the original locations of application. Our identification relies on: (i) the regulation allowing the introduction of genetically modified seeds in Brazil; (ii) the potential gain in municipality-level productivity from adoption of genetically modif...
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作者：Andrei, Daniel; Cujean, Julien; Wilson, Mungo
作者单位：McGill University; University of Bern; University of Oxford
摘要：We provide a novel explanation for the empirical failure of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) despite its widespread practical use. In a rational-expectations economy in which information is dispersed, variation in expected returns over time and across investors creates an informational gap between investors and the empiricist. The CAPM holds for investors, but the securities market line appears flat to the empiricist. Variation in expected returns across investors accounts for the larger...
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作者：Ozdenoren, Emre; Yuan, Kathy; Zhang, Shengxing
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Peking University; Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen)
摘要：Borrowers obtain liquidity by issuing securities backed by the current period payoff and resale price of a long-lived collateral asset, and they are privately informed about the payoff distribution. Asset price can be self-fulfilling: a higher asset price lowers adverse selection and allows borrowers to raise greater funding, which makes the asset more valuable, leading to multiple equilibria. Optimal security design eliminates multiple equilibria, improves welfare, and can be implemented as a...
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作者：Nagy, Davidkrisztian
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI)
摘要：I study how geography shaped city formation and aggregate development in the U.S. prior to the Civil War. To guide my analysis, I present a conjecture that cities' farm hinterlands fostered both city development and aggregate growth: the hinterland hypothesis. The hinterland hypothesis has rich implications on how various elements of U.S. geography-railroads, changes in U.S. political borders, and international trade-affected city formation and U.S. growth. To evaluate the hinterland hypothesi...
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作者：Jack, William; Kremer, Michael; De Laat, Joost; Suri, Tavneet
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of Chicago; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We study the potential for asset collateralization to expand access to credit in rural Kenya. Increasing the share of a loan for a durable agricultural asset that is collateralized by the physical asset itself (from 0 to 96%) while reducing the share backed by financial assets increases loan take-up considerably, with only a very limited impact on repayment behavior and the lender's profitability. A Karlan-Zinman test finds evidence of small and marginally significant selection effects in some...
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作者：Luz, Vitor Farinha; Gottardi, Piero; Moreira, Humberto
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of Essex; Universita Ca Foscari Venezia
摘要：This paper studies a competitive model of insurance markets in which consumers are privately informed about their risk and risk preferences. We provide a characterization of the equilibria, which depend non-trivially on consumers' type distribution, a desirable feature for policy analysis. The use of consumer characteristics for risk classification is modeled as the disclosure of a public informative signal. A novel property of signals, monotonicity, is shown to be necessary and sufficient for...
