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作者：Bastianello, Francesca; Fontanier, Paul
作者单位：University of Chicago; Yale University
摘要：We study mislearning from equilibrium prices, and contrast this with mislearning from exogenous fundamentals. We micro-found mislearning from prices with a psychologically founded theory of Partial Equilibrium Thinking (PET), where traders learn fundamental information from prices, but fail to realize others do so too. PET leads to over-reaction, and upward sloping demand curves, thus contributing to more inelastic markets. The degree of individual-level over-reaction and the extent of inelast...
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作者：De Nardi, Mariacristina; Pashchenko, Svetlana; Porapakkarm, Ponpoje
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
摘要：What generates the observed differences in economic outcomes by health? How costly it is to be unhealthy? We show that health dynamics are largely driven by ex-ante fixed heterogeneity, or health types, even when controlling for one's past health history. In fact, health types are the key driver of long spells of bad health. We incorporate these rich health dynamics in an estimated structural model and show that health types and their correlation with other fixed characteristics are important ...
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作者：Blattman, Christopher; Duncan, Gustavo; Lessing, Benjamin; Tobon, Santiago
作者单位：University of Chicago; Universidad EAFIT
摘要：Criminal groups govern millions worldwide. Even in strong states, gangs resolve disputes and provide security. Why do these duopolies of coercion emerge? Often, gangs fill vacuums of official power, suggesting that increasing state presence should crowd out criminal governance. We show, however, that state and gang rule can be strategic complements. In particular, gangs could minimize seizures and arrests by keeping neighbourhoods orderly and loyal. If true, increasing state presence could inc...
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作者：Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt; Wee, Shu Lin
作者单位：Bank of Canada
摘要：Job applications have risen over time, yet job-finding rates remain unchanged. Meanwhile, separations have declined. We argue that increased applications raise the probability of a good match rather than the probability of job-finding. Using a search model with multiple applications and costly information, we show that when applications increase, firms invest in identifying good matches, reducing separations. Concurrently, increased congestion and selectivity over which offer to accept temper ...
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作者：Aguiar, Mark; Bils, Mark; Boar, Corina
作者单位：Princeton University; University of Rochester; New York University
摘要：Many households hold little wealth. In standard precautionary savings models, these households should not only display higher marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) but also higher future consumption growth. In contrast, we see from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics that such hand-to-mouth households do not display higher growth in spending. They also exhibit greater volatility of spending and adjust their spending to a greater extent through the number of categories consumed. Consistent wit...
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作者：Hagenbach, Jeanne; Saucet, Charlotte
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); heSam Universite; Universite Pantheon-Sorbonne
摘要：We experimentally study how individuals read strategically transmitted information when they have preferences over what they will learn. Subjects play disclosure games in which Receivers should interpret messages skeptically. We vary whether the state that Senders communicate about is ego-relevant or neutral for Receivers, and whether skeptical beliefs are aligned or not with what Receivers prefer believing. Compared to neutral settings, skepticism is significantly lower when it is self-threat...
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作者：Kacperczyk, Marcin; Nosal, Jaromir; Sundaresan, Savitar
作者单位：Imperial College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study the distributional effects of asset ownership on price informativeness in a general equilibrium model. The model features investors (oligopolists) with different degrees of price impact and abilities to learn about individual asset payoffs from private and price signals, and a competitive fringe that only learns from asset prices. We show that price informativeness is non-monotonic in the oligopolists' aggregate size, decreasing in the sector's concentration and in the size of the pas...
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作者：Brown, Zach Y.; Montero, Eduardo; Schmidt-Padilla, Carlos; Sviatschi, Maria Micaela
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Princeton University
摘要：How does gang competition affect extortion? Using detailed data on individual extortion payments to gangs and sales from a leading wholesale distributor of consumer goods and pharmaceuticals in El Salvador, we document evidence on the determinants of extortion payments and the effects of extortion on firms and consumers. We exploit a 2016 non-aggression pact between gangs to examine how collusion affects extortion in areas where gangs previously competed. While the pact led to a large reductio...
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作者：Bracha, Anat; Tang, Jenny
作者单位：Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston
摘要：Inflation expectations are key determinants of economic activity and are central to the current policy debate about whether inflation expectations will remain anchored in the face of recent pandemic-related increases in inflation. This article explores evidence of inattention by constructing two novel and direct measures of consumers' inattention, and documents greater attention when inflation is high. This relationship can explain a substantial portion of the flattening of the Phillips curve ...
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作者：Bhandari, Anmol; Borovicka, Jaroslav; Ho, Paul
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：This paper develops a theory of subjective beliefs that departs from rational expectations, and shows that biases in household beliefs have quantitatively large effects on macroeconomic aggregates. The departures are formalized using model-consistent notions of pessimism and optimism which are supported by extensive time-series and cross-sectional evidence from household surveys. The role subjective beliefs play in aggregate fluctuations is quantified in a business cycle model with goods and l...
