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作者：Bergstrom, Katy; Dodds, William; Rios, Juan
作者单位：Tulane University
摘要：We develop a framework to bound the welfare impacts of arbitrarily large reforms to notches using two sufficient statistics: the change in the number of households located below the new notch and the change in the number of households located below the old notch. Our bounds hold in a wide class of models, highlighting a new way to use reduced-form bunching evidence for welfare analysis without making strong assumptions on the economic environment. We estimate these two statistics using a diffe...
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作者：Doyle, Joseph J.; Staiger, Becky
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Treatment intensity varies remarkably across physicians, and physicians are increasingly working in groups. This paper tests whether group affiliation impacts physicians' treatment intensity and patient health. Using Medicare inpatient claims data, we focus on internists who switch groups within the same hospital. Event studies show that internists who join more-intensive groups immediately increase their own intensity, with an elasticity of 0.27. This change is reflected in higher Medicare sp...
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作者：Aizawa, Naoki; Kim, You Suk
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper studies government and private advertising in market-based public programs. In a model of advertising, we first examine when government advertising increases welfare. Then, we estimate the effects of advertising on consumer demand and assess their welfare effects in the Affordable Care Act health insurance marketplaces. We find government advertising increases overall enrollment and enhances welfare. By contrast, the market expansion effect of private advertising is modest at most. ...
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作者：Li, Rui; Song, Hong; Zhang, Jun; Zhang, Junsen
作者单位：Fudan University; Zhejiang University; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：This study examines the effects of a government-led, large-scale, multifaceted poverty alleviation program on rural income in China. We find that the program has a positive impact on national key poor counties, with a 10.9 percent increase in rural income. This effect mainly arises via industrial support, agricultural development, and public service improvement. Poverty alleviation strategies consistent with local comparative advantages yield more significant effects. Household-level analyses ...
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作者：Ash, Elliott; Galletta, Sergio; Giommoni, Tommaso
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Amsterdam
摘要：Can machine learning support better governance? This study uses a tree-based, gradient-boosted classifier to predict corruption in Brazilian municipalities using budget data as predictors. The trained model offers a predictive measure of corruption, which we validate through replication and extension of previous corruption studies. Our policy simulations show that machine learning can significantly enhance corruption detection: Compared to random audits, a machine-guided targeted policy could ...
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作者：Hemmeter, Jeffrey; Phillips, John; Safran, Elana; Wilson, Nicholas
作者单位：National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; Reed College - Portland
摘要：We conducted a direct mail field experiment with 4,016,461 individuals to test several key hypotheses about why take-up of Supplemental Security Income among individuals age 65 and above is so low. Communicating likely eligibility in a basic letter generated substantial increases in take-up in relative terms. Adding behaviorally informed statements increased the effectiveness of these communications. Yet, the application rate in our study sample during the full 24-month follow-up period remain...
