作者：Hendry, DF
摘要：When an econometric model coincides with the mechanism generating the data in an unchanging world the theory of economic forecasting is reasonably well developed. However, less is known about forecasting when model and mechanism differ in a non-stationary and changing world. The paper addresses the basic concepts; the invariance of forecast accuracy measures to isomorphic model representations; the roles of causal information, parsimony and collinearity a reformulated taxonomy of forecast erro...
作者：Wright, RE
作者单位：University of Stirling
作者：Ades, A; DiTella, R
作者单位：University of Oxford
摘要：We present a hold-up model of investment where active industrial policy promotes both corruption and investment. Since corruption deters investment, the effect of industrial policy on investment is lower than when corruption is absent. We find evidence suggesting that corruption is indeed higher in countries pursuing active industrial policies. Policy implications are illustrated by decomposing the total effect of industrial policy into a positive, direct effect, and a negative, corruption-ind...
作者：Viscusi, WK
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：Receipt of multiple sources of risk information ideally should foster sounder decisions under uncertainty. This paper's original survey results for environmental risks suggest that the learning process is reasonable in many respects, bur it does not accord with a rational Bayesian learning model. Divergent risk assessments from different sources produce extreme violations of rationality, as there is inordinate weight on the high risk assessment. This alarmist reaction holds for both government...
作者：Wright, RE
作者单位：University of Stirling
