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作者：de Mendonca, Helder Ferreira; de Guimaraes e Souza, Gustavo Jose
作者单位：Universidade Federal Fluminense; Universidade de Brasilia
摘要：Since the 1990s inflation targeting (IT) has been adopted by several central banks as a strategy for monetary policy. It is expected that the adoption of this monetary regime can reduce inflation and inflation volatility. This article is concerned with these issues and makes use of the Propensity Score Matching methodology on a sample of 180 countries for the period from 1990 to 2007. For analysis, the sample is split into two sets of countries (advanced and developing). The findings suggest t...
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作者：Tandon, Sharad
摘要：This paper uses the Indian tariff reforms of the early nineties to estimate how voters hurt by economic reforms respond. Regions more hurt by the tariff reform increased their support for both the party that initiated their suffering and parties with similar preferences in favor of poverty-centric policies. This response is surprisingly sophisticated, where voters did not simply punish incumbents for negative income shocks and correctly discounted initial anti-reform stances by opposition part...
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作者：Lybbert, Travis J.; McPeak, John
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; Syracuse University
摘要：Most decisions involve variability in two dimensions: uncertainty across states of nature and fluctuations over time. The stakes involved in tradeoffs between these variability dimensions are especially high for the poor who have difficulty managing and recovering from shocks. We assume Epstein and Zin recursive preferences and estimate risk aversion and intertemporal substitution as distinct preferences using data from Kenyan herders. Results suggest that the assumption implicit in additive e...
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作者：Akresh, Richard; Lucchetti, Leonardo; Thirumurthy, Harsha
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：Conflict between and within countries can have lasting health and economic consequences, but identifying such effects can be empirically challenging. This paper uses household survey data from Eritrea to estimate the effect of exposure to the 1998-2000 Eritrea-Ethiopia war on children's health. The identification strategy exploits exogenous variation in the conflict's geographic extent and timing and the exposure of different birth cohorts to the fighting. The unique survey data include detail...
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作者：Bosch, Mariano; Esteban-Pretel, Julen
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：In developing economies, the fraction of informal workers can be as high as 70% of total employment. For economies with significant informal sectors, business cycle fluctuations and labor market policy interventions can have important effects not only on the unemployment rate, but also on the allocation of workers across regulated and unregulated jobs. In this paper, using worker flows data from Brazil, we build, calibrate, and simulate a two-sector search and matching labor market model, in w...
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作者：Cole, Shawn; Healy, Andrew; Werker, Eric
作者单位：Harvard University; Loyola Marymount University
摘要：Using rainfall, public relief, and election data from India, we examine how governments respond to adverse shocks and how voters react to these responses. The data show that voters punish the incumbent party for weather events beyond its control. However, fewer voters punish the ruling party when its government responds vigorously to the crisis, indicating that voters reward the government for responding to disasters. We also find evidence suggesting that voters only respond to rainfall and go...
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作者：Gallego, Francisco A.; Tessada, Jose A.
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
摘要：While the aggregate effects of sudden stops and international financial crises are well known, the disaggregated channels through which they work are not well explored yet. In this paper, using job flows from a sectoral panel dataset for four Latin American countries, we find that sudden stops are characterized as periods of lower job creation and increased job destruction. Moreover, these effects are heterogeneous across sectors: we find that when a sudden stop occurs, sectors with higher dep...
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作者：Brandt, Loren; Van Biesebroeck, Johannes; Zhang, Yifan
作者单位：KU Leuven; University of Toronto; Lingnan University
摘要：We present the first comprehensive set of firm-level total factor productivity (TFP) estimates for China's manufacturing sector that spans China's entry into the WTO. For our preferred estimate, which adjusts for a number of potential sources of measurement error and bias, the weighted average annual productivity growth for incumbents is 2.85% for a gross output production function and 7.96% for a value added production function over the period 1998-2007. This is among the highest compared to ...
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作者：Freund, Caroline; Pierola, Martha Denisse
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：How can developing countries stimulate and sustain strong export growth? To answer this question, we examine 92 episodes of export surges, defined as significant increases in manufacturing export growth that are sustained for at least 7 years. We find that export surges in developing countries tend to be preceded by a large real depreciation, which leaves the exchange rate significantly undervalued. In contrast, in developed countries, the role of the exchange rate is less pronounced. We exami...
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作者：Inklaar, Robert; Yang, Jing
作者单位：University of Groningen
摘要：Financial crises can have severe negative effects on investment. One reason for this is that financial crises increase uncertainty, increasing the real option value of delaying investment. In this paper, we show that the negative effect of crises on investment differs significantly across countries: in countries with low tolerance for uncertainty, the negative effect is strong. The negative effect is absent in countries that are more tolerant of uncertainty. These findings are similar across d...
