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作者：CHATTERJEE, S; RAVIKUMAR, B
作者单位：University of Iowa; University of Virginia
摘要：We develop a neoclassical capital accumulation model with seasonal perturbations to tastes and technology. We calibrate the model and use it to study the impact of seasonal demand and supply perturbations on economic activity. We find that the impact is largely limited to a single quarter. We also use our model to isolate the seasonal movements in U.S. quarterly data and then compute the seasonal variations in tastes and technology that approximately explain these movements. We find comovement...
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作者：MELTZER, AH
作者单位：American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
摘要：Don Patinkin's discussion of alternative interpretations of Keynes's General Theory gave considerable weight to an author's motivation, particularly mine. Patinkin also restates his view that the General Theory offers a short-run disequilibrium approach. I suggest that textual interpretation in economics should not consider motives because better methods are available and are now used. I propose three standards. Applying these standards, I find little support for Patinkin's interpretation of t...
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作者：IKEDA, S; SHIBATA, A
作者单位：Osaka Metropolitan University
摘要：In a continuous-time model of stock prices with dividends growing stochastically we examine bubbles which depend on market fundamentals. The fundamentals dependency stabilizes bubble dynamics. They can be stochastically stable, saddlepoint-stable, or unstable. Stock prices with these bubbles can be less volatile than fundamental prices. These bubbles exhibit various transition patterns, such as nonmonotonic movements and monotonic shrinkage in magnitude and volatility. The sign of their correl...
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作者：KELLY, M
摘要：Recent evidence on output convergence across economies has been widely interpreted as falsifying the predictions of endogenous growth theory. This paper shows, however, that nonconvergence is an artifact of the deterministic structure of endogenous growth models: when stochastic factor productivity is introduced, convergence tends to occur despite nondiminishing returns to capital and persistent growth. For the case of constant returns to capital, it is shown that output paths of different eco...
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作者：LIPPI, M; REICHLIN, L
摘要：Empirical results on U.S. GNP have provided estimates of the Beveridge and Nelson's persistence measure (almost) always greater than unity when using ARIMA models and always smaller than unity when using UCARIMA models. This paper shows that a measure of persistence less than unity is a mathematical consequence of the definition of UCARIMA models and not an independent estimation result. Therefore, ARIMA and UCARIMA estimates of persistence cannot be compared on the same ground.
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作者：FUERST, TS
摘要：This paper develops a general equilibrium model of two traditional explanations of the monetary 'black box' linking money and real activity: the liquidity effect and the loanable funds effect. These effects are modeled with a monetary production economy in which central bank injections of cash are funnelled into the economy through the credit market. Since only borrowers have direct access to the newly injected cash, monetary injections cause nominal interest rates to fall. If firms are borrow...
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作者：SHILLER, RJ; BELTRATTI, AE
作者单位：University of Turin
摘要：Real stock prices do not show the relation to long-term interest rates that a simple rational expectations present value model would imply. Real stock prices drop when long-term interest rates rise (and rise when they fall) more than would be implied by this vector autoregression model. In contrast, over the last century changes in real stock prices have shown little correlation with changes in inflation rates, and according to the present value model they should show little correlation. These...
