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作者：Ahmed, S; Rogers, JH
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We test whether long-term data from the U.S. and U.K. are consistent with the intertemporal government budget constraint and external borrowing constraint, both individually and simultaneously. A very strong test is provided by our focus on whether the present value constraints (PVCs) continue to hold despite unusual events, such as wars, that cause a structural break in the short-run dynamic behavior of the variables. We find that the PVCs hold over the whole sample period. The data also indi...
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作者：ROUBINI, N; SALAIMARTIN, X
摘要：This paper studies the relation between policies of financial repression, inflation rates, and long-term growth. We set up a model which shows that governments might want to repress the financial sector because this sector is an 'easy' source of resources for the public budget (the inflation tax). To the extent that the financial sector increases the efficiency of the allocation of savings to productive investment, the choice of the degree of financial development will have real effects on the...
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作者：RUDEBUSCH, GD
摘要：The amount of information in the yield curve for forecasting future changes in short rates varies with the maturity of the rates involved. Indeed, spreads between certain long and short rates appear unrelated to future changes in the short rate - contrary to the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure. This paper estimates a daily model of Federal Reserve interest rate targeting behavior, which, accompanied by the maintained hypothesis of rational expectations, explains the vary...
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作者：HASLAG, JH; HEIN, SE
作者单位：Texas Tech University System; Texas Tech University
摘要：In the U.S., existing monetary base measures add an adjustment factor for changes in reserve requirement ratios to high powered money. Implicitly, the monetary base assumes that the economic effects of changes in reserve requirements are identical to those due to changes in high-powered money. Theory, however, does not generally support the prediction that the two policy tools will have the same economic effects. Structural VARs are estimated to compare the short-run paths of inflation and out...
