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作者：Fair, RC; Howrey, EP
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：This paper examines monetary policy from an optimal control perspective. Five loss functions are minimized for each of five models, and the results are compared. The basic ('true') loss function targets inflation and unemployment. The other loss functions target, respectively, inflation alone, unemployment alone, nominal growth alone, and real growth alone. The five models are two small structural models, two VAR models, and a large structural model. A numerical procedure is presented that can...
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作者：Sbordone, AM
摘要：This pager develops a dynamic model of labor hoarding to explain two empirical facts, the cyclical behavior of total factor productivity and the dynamic correlations of sectoral productivity with aggregate variables. The model features convex costs of adjusting the labor force, which induce firms to vary the intensity of labor utilization over the cycle. In particular, cyclical variations in labor 'effort' take place as a response to expected future changes in industry conditions. I test the r...
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作者：Bayoumi, T; Gagnon, J
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：In a world of mobile capital, the current system of taxation implies that the after-tax cost of capital and return to saving in each country are negatively correlated with the rate of inflation. Thus a country's net foreign asset position ought to be negatively correlated with its long-run inflation rate. The magnitude of these effects is shown to be potentially large. For OECD countries, cross-section and time-series regressions confirm that inflation rates are good predictors of net foreign ...
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作者：Dueker, M; Fischer, AM
作者单位：Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：This paper extends McCallum's (1987) nominal targeting rule to a small open economy by allowing for feedback from the exchange rate. Instead of setting parameters in a McCallum-type targeting rule and simulating, the parameters are estimated using a Markov switching model. We argue that a model of discrete parameter changes should be adept at capturing sudden changes in policy regime, such as changes in the degree to which monetary policy admits feedback from the exchange rate. We examine the ...
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作者：Galetovic, A
摘要：In market economies financial intermediaries develop during the early stages of industrialization. This paper argues that it occurs because as firms specialize the number of transactions involving credit increases. The main conclusions of the paper are: (a) when increased specialization is a necessary condition for growth, sustained growth may not start if financial intermediaries do not emerge. In this sense, intermediaries are a necessary condition for growth to start and persist; (b) when f...
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作者：Evans, P; Karras, G
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital
摘要：The conventional approach to testing whether economies converge examines the cross-sectional relationship between the growth rate of per capita output over some time period and the initial level of per capita output. This paper shows that this approach is valid only if economies have identical first-order autoregressive dynamic structures and all permanent cross-economy differences are completely controlled for, conditions that are grossly violated for the data sets considered here. The paper ...
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作者：Kamihigashi, T
摘要：This paper points out that real business cycle models are observationally equivalent to externality models, which we define as models with externalities and sunspots but without productivity shocks. As far as standard first-order systems are concerned, however, externality models turn out to be more flexible than RBC models. This explains, at least partly, why previous studies have found that externality models perform better than standard RBC models at generating realistic business cycle beha...
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作者：Loewy, MB; Papell, DH
摘要：Regions of the United States represent a set of economies where the conditions often argued as underlying convergence in per-capita income are satisfied, Stochastic convergence among regions implies the rejections of a unit root in relative per-capita income, a hypothesis which is not supported by conventional tests. Carlino and Mills (1993) allow for an exogenous trend break, but can only reject the unit root hypothesis in three of the eight U.S. regions. We incorporate endogenously determine...
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作者：Freeman, S
摘要：The paper presents a model of banks as clearinghouses of private debt where money is used as the means of payment. Implications of the model include: i) the private provision of banknotes or a discount window may be needed to avoid the insufficient debt clearing that results from an inflexible currency stock; and ii) an uncontrolled total money stock may result in a multiplicity of equilibria including an inflationary banknote over-issue.
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作者：Grier, KB
摘要：Grier(1991) shows that monetary policy is influenced by Congress in that increases in the liberality of the Senate Banking Committee leadership are significantly positively correlated with monetary base growth. Chopin, Cole, and Ellis (1996) claim that the House leadership statistically dominates the Senate leadership for predicting money growth, but that the direction of the effect is perverse: a more liberal House leadership is associated with a lower rate of base growth. In this paper, I sh...
