-
作者：Archer, DJ
摘要：The legislative framework under which the Reserve Bank of New Zealand operates was changed in 1989, to one providing for a tightly constructed target (rule), with discretion over instrument choice. The rationale for the change rests on the idea that damage to long-run growth would follow if monetary policy were to pay active attention to the short-run output and employment consequences of monetary policy actions. The rule now in place thus prohibits monetary policy from active consideration of...
-
作者：Ghosh, AR; Ostry, JD
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：The relationship between current account developments and changes in the macroeconomic environment is a key issue in open economy macroeconomics. This paper extends the standard intertemporal model of the current account to incorporate the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on external saving behavior. It is shown that the greater the uncertainty in national cash flow, defined as output less investment less government consumption, the greater will be the incentive for precautionary saving an...
-
作者：Roberts, JM
摘要：New Keynesian sticky-price models predict that monetary policy can affect real variables. However, they also predict that inflation can be reduced without depressing output or employment. In fact, bringing down inflation is costly, presenting a challenge to the New Keynesian model. Two departures from the New Keynesian model predict costly disinflation. One assumes sticky inflation rather than sticky prices, while the other assumes less-than-perfectly rational expectations. Taking into account...
-
作者：McCallum, BT
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper argues, first, that it is inappropriate to presume that central banks will, in the absence of any tangible precommitment technology, inevitably behave in a 'discretionary' fashion that implies an inflationary bias. Furthermore, there is no necessary tradeoff between 'flexibility and commitment'. Second, to the extent that the absence of any precommitment technology is nevertheless a problem, it will apply to a consolidated central bank-plus-government entity as well as to the centra...
-
作者：Bacchetta, P; Gerlach, S
作者单位：Study Center Gerzensee; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Bank for International Settlements (BIS); University of Lausanne
摘要：If some consumers are liquidity-constrained, aggregate consumption should be 'excessively sensitive' to credit conditions as well as to income. Moreover, the 'excess sensitivity' may vary over time. Using data for the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan and France, we find a substantial impact of credit aggregates on consumption in all countries considered. Moreover, the borrowing/lending wedge is a significant determinant of consumption in the United States, Canada and Japan. Usi...
-
作者：Issing, O
摘要：For more than two decades the Deutsche Bundesbank has followed a strategy of pre-announcing targets for the growth in broad money. Such consistency has not conflicted with limited flexibility in policy implementation. The stable policy environment may have contributed to the stability of the monetary system in general and money demand in particular, thus facilitating the maintenance of the strategy.
-
作者：Hess, GD; Iwata, S
作者单位：University of Cambridge; University of Kansas
摘要：If an economic time series behaves asymmetrically, then an interpretation of economic fluctuations based on linear time-series models could be misleading. Beaudry and Koop (1993) recently argued that for post-war US GDP data there exists a statistically significant difference in persistence between negative and positive shocks. We demonstrate that their test has two pitfalls: First, the t-statistic for testing asymmetry in persistence does not have a conventional interpretation. Second, a high...
-
作者：Leeper, EM
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington
摘要：Romer and Romer [Romer, C.D., Romer, D.H., 1989. Does monetary policy matter? A new test in the spirit of Friedman and Schwartz. In: Blanchard, O.J., Fischer, S. (Eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp. 121-170; Romer, C.D., Romer, D.H., 1994. Monetary policy matters. Journal of Monetary Economics 34, 75-88] adopted a narrative approach to address the identification problems in time series models of monetary policy. Based on Federal Reserve documents, the Romers c...
-
作者：Soderlind, P; Svensson, L
作者单位：Stockholm University; Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates and inflation. More recently, these methods have been refined to rely on implied-forward interest rates, so as to extract expected future time-paths. Very recently, methods have been designed to extract n...
-
作者：Demirguc-Kunt, A; Diwan, I; Spiegel, MM
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; The World Bank
摘要：Using data on bank choices in the 1988 Brazilian debt-reduction deal, we confirm predictable heterogeneity in bank valuation of Brazilian claims. In the presence of a functioning secondary market for LDC debt, the source of this heterogeneity is unclear. We introduce a model in which regulatory concerns influence bank choice, Bank choices in debt reduction programs are aimed at maximizing the magnitude of their transfer from regulatory agencies. As a result, bank choices reflect their characte...
