1999

最新文章

• Common and country-specific fluctuations in productivity, investment, and the current account AI翻译
  作者：Gregory, AW; Head, AC
  作者单位：Queens University - Canada
  摘要：Dynamic factor analysis and Kalman filtering are used to construct a measure of common economic activity for the G7 countries. We find that the common fluctuations are strongly associated with movements in US investment. Common fluctuations have substantial impact on fluctuations in both productivity and investment in these countries, but very little impact on the current account. Country-specific investment fluctuations have a significant negative impact on the current account, while country-...
• Technology, growth and the business cycle AI翻译
  作者：Imbs, JM
  作者单位：New York University
  摘要：Using a partial equilibrium model that allows for factor hoarding, I construct series on input utilization rates for ten OECD countries. These series are used in growth accounting computations of total factor productivity which filter out cyclical variations in input utilization rates. The main findings are as follows:(i) adjusted Solow residuals grow consistently faster than standard measures; (ii) the variability of the adjusted Solow residual is in some cases smaller than the standard resid...
• Taxation and long-run growth AI翻译
  作者：Hendricks, L
  作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
  摘要：A number of recent papers have investigated the growth effects of tax reforms in the context of neoclassical growth models with human capital. Growth effects were found to be large, but highly sensitive to parameter choices. This paper shows that growth effects are smaller and much less sensitive in models that generate realistic life-cycle behavior, which requires that households are finitely lived (but generations may be altruistically linked) and face diminishing point in time returns in hu...
• Endogenous trade policy and the gains from international financial markets AI翻译
  作者：Devereux, MB; Lee, KM
  作者单位：University of British Columbia; National University of Singapore
  摘要：This paper examines the interaction between international financial markets and trade policy. When trade policy is endogenous, there is a secondary gain from opening up financial markets, in addition to the direct risk-sharing benefits. By breaking the direct link between the terms of trade and welfare, international portfolio diversification can allow for a lower level of trade protection in a tariff game between governments, We apply the model to an estimation of the welfare gains from inter...
• Forecasting inflation AI翻译
  作者：Stock, JH; Watson, MW
  作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
  摘要：This paper investigates forecasts of US inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts produced by the Phillips curve generally have been more accurate than forecasts based on other macroeconomic variables, including interest rates, money and commodity prices. These forecasts can however be improved upon using a generalized Phillips curve based ...
• Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers AI翻译
  作者：Christiano, LJ; Harrison, SG
  作者单位：Northwestern University; Federal Reserve System - USA; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
  摘要：We consider a real business cycle model with an externality in production. Depending on parameter values, the model has sunspot equilibria, cyclical and chaotic equilibria, and equilibria with deterministic or stochastic regime switching. We study the implications of this model environment for automatic stabilizer tax systems. Stabilization is desirable because the efficient allocations are characterized by constant employment and output growth. We identify an automatic stabilizer income tax-s...
• The return of the Phillips curve AI翻译
  作者：[Anonymous]
• Sovereign debt and consumption smoothing AI翻译
  作者：Grossman, HI; Han, T
  作者单位：Brown University; Chung Ang University
  摘要：This paper shows that whether or not a sovereign can borrow to smooth consumption depends both on how consumption smoothing is achieved, whether by contingent debt issuance or by contingent debt servicing, and on the penalty for debt repudiation. If a sovereign that repudiated its debt could not borrow again, but could continue to save and to dissave, then contingent debt issuance, without contingent debt servicing, cannot support a positive amount of uncollateralized sovereign debt. But, with...
• Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule AI翻译
  作者：Svensson, LEO
  作者单位：Stockholm University
  摘要：The purpose of the paper is to survey and discuss inflation targeting in the context of monetary policy rules. The paper provides a general conceptual discussion of monetary policy rules, attempts to clarify the essential characteristics of inflation targeting, compares inflation targeting to monetary targeting and nominal-GDP targeting, and draws some conclusions for the monetary policy of the European System of Central Banks. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
• On the efficiency and equity trade-off AI翻译
  作者：Correira, IH
  作者单位：Banco de Portugal; Universidade Catolica Portuguesa
  摘要：The concept of policy measures that create a potential Pareto improvement has dominated normative economics. The use of this concept in welfare economics relies on the availability of discriminatory lump-sum transfers in such a way that the implementation of the efficient policy measure leads to a Pareto movement in the economy. However, most studies of efficient policies preclude by assumption the existence of lump-sum taxation. This paper proposes, in economies amenable to German aggregation...