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作者：Francis, N; Ramey, VA
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：This paper re-examines recent empirical evidence that positive technology shocks lead to short-run declines in hours. Building on Gali's [1999. Technology, employment, and the business cycle: do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations. American Economic Review 89, 249-271] work, which uses long-run restrictions to identify technology shocks, we analyze whether the identified shocks can be plausibly interpreted as technology shocks. We first examine the validity of the identification a...
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作者：Yang, SCS
摘要：Studies of tax effects make the conventional information assumption that changes in period-t taxes become known at t. Legislative lags, however, imply that news arrives before tax changes take place. Under policy foreknowledge, the conventional information structure is therefore misspecified. Simulations of a standard neoclassical growth model suggest that foresight of only one quarter can distort substantially the estimates of tax effects obtained under the no-foresight assumption. Also, it i...
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作者：Galí, J; Gertler, M; López-Salido, JD
作者单位：New York University; Pompeu Fabra University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Gali and Gertler [1999. Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric approach. Journal of Monetary Eonomics 44(2), 195-222] developed a hybrid variant of the New Keynesian Phillips curve that relates inflation to real marginal cost, expected future inflation and lagged inflation. GMM estimates of the model suggest that forward-looking behavior is dominant: the coefficient on expected future inflation substantially exceeds the coefficient on lagged inflation. While the latter differs significan...
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作者：Lindé, J
作者单位：Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：The New-Keynesian Phillips curve has recently become an important ingredient in monetary policy models. However, using limited information methods, the empirical support for the New-Keynesian Phillips curve appear to be mixed. This paper argues, by means of Monte Carlo simulations with a simple New-Keynesian sticky price model, that single equations methods, e.g. GMM, are likely to produce imprecise and biased estimates. Then, it is argued that estimating the model with full information maximu...
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作者：Woodford, M
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：The use of a long-term interest rate as the instrument of monetary policy would not have the advantage, sometimes claimed for it, of relaxing the constraint on what can be achieved by monetary policy when the zero lower bound on short-term interest rates is reached. The proposal would also seem an impractical one to implement. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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作者：Cole, HL; Ohanian, LE; Riascos, A; Schmitz, JA
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Banco de la Republica Colombia
摘要：Latin American countries are the only Western countries that are poor and that are not gaining ground on the U.S. This paper evaluates why Latin America has not replicated Western economic success. We find that this failure is primarily due to TFP differences. Latin America's TFP gap is not plausibly accounted for by human capital differences, but rather reflects inefficient production. We argue that competitive barriers are a promising channel for understanding low Latin TFP. We document that...
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作者：Bhattacharya, J; Haslag, J; Russell, S
作者单位：University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia; Purdue University System; Purdue University; Purdue University in Indianapolis; Iowa State University
摘要：In models of money with an infinitely lived representative agent (ILRA models), the optimal monetary policy is almost always the Friedman rule. In overlapping generations (OG) models, by contrast, the Friedman rule may not be optimal. In this paper, we use this difference in monetary policy prescriptions to help us identify and study the key difference between these two models as models of money. We study the welfare properties of monetary policy in a simple OG model under two very different m...
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作者：Sbordone, AM
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：This article discusses a more general interpretation of the two-step minimum distance estimation procedure proposed in Sbordone (2002). The estimator is again applied to a version of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, where inflation dynamics are driven by the expected evolution of marginal costs. The article clarifies econometric issues, addresses concerns about uncertainty and model misspecification raised in recent studies, and assesses the robustness of previous results. While confirming th...
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作者：Alexius, A
作者单位：Uppsala University
摘要：Previous studies have concluded that productivity shocks have negligible effects on real exchange rate fluctuations. This paper shows that when long-run equilibrium relationships between real exchange rate levels and fundamental variables are taken into account, relative productivity shocks account for most of the long-run movements in the real exchange rates. This can be interpreted as empirical support for the Balassa (1964. Journal of Political Economy 72, 584-596) and Samuelson (1964. Revi...
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作者：Cochrane, JH
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：The fiscal theory determines the price level from the value of nominal government debt as a claim to government primary surpluses, just as private stock is valued as a claim to corporate profits. Valuation equations are not constraints, so this theory does not mistreat the government's intertemporal budget constraint. I anchor the analysis in a simple cash in advance model. When money demand falls to zero, I show that the price level can still be determined by the government debt valuation equ...
