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作者：Engel, Charles; Rogers, John H.
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：We investigate the possibility that the large current account deficits of the U.S. are the outcome of optimizing behavior. We develop a simple long-run world equilibrium model in which the current account is determined by the expected discounted present value of its future share of world GDP relative to its current share of world GDP. The model suggests that under some reasonable assumptions about future U.S. GDP growth relative to the rest of the advanced countries-more modest than the growth...
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作者：Lehnert, A; Passmore, W
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
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作者：Beber, Alessandro; Brandt, Michael W.
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Lausanne
摘要：We examine the effect of regularly scheduled macroeconomic announcements on the beliefs and preferences of participants in the U.S. Treasury market by comparing the option-implied state-price densities (SPDs) of bond prices shortly before and after the announcements. We find that the announcements reduce the uncertainty implicit in the second moment of the SPD regardless of the content of the news. The changes in the higher-order moments, in contrast, depend on whether the news is good or bad ...
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作者：Nalewaik, Jeremy J.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Using group means computed from 20 years of high quality survey data, I show a strong and robust relation between households' consumption growth and subsequent realizations of their income growth, including realizations as distant as six years later. The relation appears in multiple types of variation in income growth: in variation across cohort-education groups, in variation over the life cycle, and in variation over the business cycle. While other explanations are explored, the results are l...
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作者：Samaniego, Roberto M.
作者单位：George Washington University; George Washington University
摘要：There is evidence linking the productivity slowdown of the 1970s and 1980s to changing patterns of technological adoption related to the spread of information technology (IT). Notably, IT appears to require plant-level reorganization for its full implementation. I develop a general equilibrium model in which organizational capital plays a central role in establishment dynamics, and study its transition path after a shock in the form of an incompatibility between new technologies and previously...
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作者：Kochhar, Kalpana; Kumar, Utsav; Rajan, Raghuram; Subramanian, Arvind; Tokatlidis, Ioannis
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：India has followed an idiosyncratic pattern of development, certainly compared with other fast-growing Asian economies. While the importance of services rather than manufacturing has been widely noted, within manufacturing India has emphasized skill-intensive rather than labor-intensive manufacturing, and industries with higher-than-average scale (though average firm size within industries is unusually small). Some of these distinctive patterns existed prior to the beginning of economic reform...
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作者：Koreshkova, Tatyana A.
作者单位：Concordia University - Canada; University of Toronto; University System of Ohio; Oberlin College
摘要：Inflation rates Lire more dispersed and are persistently higher in developing countries. This paper quantifies the importance of the public-finance motive for inflation in the presence of a tax-evading sector, the underground economy. The approach is motivated by the observation that the underground economy is especially large in poor countries. The analysis builds on a general equilibrium monetary model with two production sectors. where income in one of the sectors cannot be taxed. A benevol...
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作者：Carlos Rodriguez, Juan
作者单位：Tilburg University
摘要：In a general equilibrium setting, a temporary component in consumption introduces a wedge between the volatility of equity returns and the volatility of consumption growth. This paper explores the asset pricing consequences of this property in a model in which consumption is the sum of a permanent and a transitory component. Permanent shocks are assumed to be rare events, while transitory shocks follow a diffusion process. When calibrated to US annual data, the model matches first and second m...
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作者：Mills, David C., Jr.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：I explore alternative central bank policies for liquidity provision in a model of payments. I use a mechanism design approach so that agents' incentives to default are explicit and contingent on the credit policy designed. In the first policy, the central bank invests in costly enforcement and charges an interest rate to recover costs. I show that the second-best solution is not distortionary. In the second policy, the central bank requires collateral. If collateral does not bear an opportunit...
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作者：Eaton, Jonathan
作者单位：New York University
