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作者：Edge, Rochelle M.; Laubach, Thomas; Williams, John C.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：An extensive literature has analyzed the macroeconomic effects of shocks to the level of aggregate productivity; however, there has been little corresponding research on sustained shifts in the growth rate of productivity. In this paper, we examine the effects of shocks to productivity growth in a dynamic general equilibrium model where agents do not directly observe whether shocks are transitory or persistent. We show that an estimated Kalman filter model using real-time data describes econom...
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作者：Fernald, John G.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：Structural vector autoregressions with long-run restrictions are extraordinarily sensitive to low-frequency correlations. Recent literature finds that the estimated effects of technology shocks are sensitive to how one treats hours per capita. However, after allowing for (statistically and economically significant) trend breaks in productivity, results are much less sensitive: hours fall when technology improves. The issue is that the common high-low-high pattern of productivity growth and hou...
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作者：Ljungqvist, Lars; Sargent, Thomas J.
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics; New York University
摘要：To understand European and American unemployment during the last 60 years, we use a search-island model and four matching models with workers who have heterogeneous skills and entitlements to government benefits. When there is higher turbulence, in the sense of worse skill transition probabilities for workers who suffer involuntary layoffs, high government mandated unemployment insurance (UI) and employment protection (EP) in Europe increase unemployment rates and durations. But when there is ...
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作者：Bullard, James; Feigenbaum, James
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
摘要：A puzzle in consumption theory is the observation of a hump in age-consumption profiles. This paper studies a general equilibrium life-cycle economy with capital in which households include both consumption and leisure in their period utility function. A calibrated version of the model shows that a significant hump in life-cycle consumption is a feature of the equilibrium. Thus inclusion of leisure in household preferences may provide part of the explanation of observed life-cycle consumption ...
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作者：Gurkaynaka, Refet S.; Sack, Brian; Wright, Jonathan H.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：The discount function, which determines the value of all future nominal payments, is the most basic building block of finance and is usually inferred from the Treasury yield curve. It is therefore surprising that researchers and practitioners do not have available to them a long history of high-frequency yield curve estimates. This paper fills that void by making public the Treasury yield curve estimates of the Federal Reserve Board at a daily frequency from 1961 to the present. We use a well-...
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作者：Devereux, Michael B.; Smith, Gregor W.
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Queens University - Canada
摘要：We study the classic,:transfer problem using the largest historical example, the Franco-Prussian War indemnity of 1871-1.873 which saw France transfer to Germany 25% of a year's GDP. A dynamic, two-country model allows for debt finance, supply-side effects, and controls for wartime spending. The model can, fit the historical paths of French net exports and the terms of trade. But explaining French output and consumption requires additional shocks. These results illustrate the usefulness of, th...
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作者：Marcet, Albert; Obiols-Homs, Francesc; Weil, Philippe
作者单位：Autonomous University of Barcelona; Pompeu Fabra University; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); Universite Libre de Bruxelles
摘要：Endogenous labor supply decisions are introduced in an equilibrium model of limited insurance against idiosyncratic shocks. Unlike in the standard case with exogenous labor (e.g. [Aiyagari, S.R., 1994. Uninsured idiosyncratic risk and aggregate saving. Quarterly Journal of Economics 109, 659-684; Huggett, M., 1997. The one-sector growth model with idiosyncratic shocks: steady states and dynamics. Journal of Monetary Economics 39, 385-403]), labor supply is likely to be lower than under complet...
