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作者：Kulish, Mariano; Morley, James; Robinson, Tim
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; University of Melbourne
摘要：We propose estimating DSGE models in which the central bank fixes the policy rate for an extended period of time and apply our approach to estimate expected durations of the Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policy since 2009. We find a large increase in expected duration in 2011 with the move to calendar-based guidance and a decrease in 2013 with the 'Taper tantrum'. These changes are identified by the influence of expected duration on output, inflation and interest rates at longer maturit...
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作者：Badel, Alejandro; Huggett, Mark
作者单位：Georgetown University
摘要：A formula for the revenue maximizing top tax rate is derived as a function of three elasticities. The formula applies to static models and to steady states of dynamic models and is relevant for the top tax rate on any component of income. The formula is applied to several classic models. The application of the formula is also illustrated using a quantitative human capital model. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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作者：Chang, Roberto; Fernandez, Andres; Gulan, Adam
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; National Bureau of Economic Research; Bank of Finland
摘要：Corporate sectors in emerging markets have noticeably increased their reliance on foreign financing, presumably reflecting low global interest rates. The evidence also shows a rebalancing from bank loans towards bonds. To study these developments, we develop a dynamic open economy model where these modes of finance are determined endogenously. The model replicates the stylized facts following a drop in world interest rates; in particular, rebalancing towards bonds occurs because bank credit be...
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作者：King, Robert G.
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作者：Farboodi, Maryam
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作者：Mckay, Alisdair
作者单位：Boston University
摘要：Long-term earnings losses for displaced workers are large and counter-cyclical. Similarly, the skewness of earnings growth rates is strongly pro-cyclical. This paper presents an incomplete markets business cycle model in which idiosyncratic risk varies over time in accordance with these empirical findings. These dynamics of idiosyncratic risk give rise to a cyclical precautionary savings motive that substantially raises the volatility of aggregate consumption growth. According to the model, id...
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作者：Aguiar, Mark
作者单位：Princeton University
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作者：Adelino, Manuel; Frame, W. Scott; Gerardi, Kristopher
作者单位：Duke University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs), the dominant investors in subprime mortgage-backed securities before the 2008 crisis, substantively affected collateral composition in this market. Mortgages included in securities designed for the GSEs performed better than those backing other securities in the same deals, holding observable risk constant. Consistent with the transmission of private information, these effects are concentrated in low documentation loans and for issuers that were highly de...
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作者：Alviarez, Vanessa; Cravino, Javier; Levchenko, Andrei A.
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Using a large firm-level dataset, this paper studies multinational firms' performance during the Great Recession. Foreign multinationals grew faster than local firms outside of the crisis, but slower during the crisis. Industry and size differences between domestic and foreign-owned firms account for much of this slowdown. However, multinationals from different countries performed differently during the crisis. The paper then assesses the role of multinationals in the global recession using a ...
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作者：Altavilla, Carlo; Giannone, Domenico; Modugno, Michele
作者单位：European Central Bank; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Are macroeconomic releases important drivers of Treasury bond yields? We develop a two-step regression strategy that fully exploits the available high-frequency market reaction data to identify the impact of macroeconomic releases and to quantify the effects at lower frequencies. While macroeconomic surprises explain only one tenth of the daily variation in bond yields, their explanatory power improves substantially at lower frequencies, accounting for one third of quarterly variations. The fi...
