Asymmetric and Contingent Value of Crowd Wisdom in Crowdfunding

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Xiao, Shengsheng; Ho, Yi-Chun Chad; Dasgupta, Subhasish; Huang, Hailiang; Lin, Zhijie
• 署名单位: Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; George Washington University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Tsinghua University
• 刊物名称: INFORMATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1047-7047; 1526-5536
• DOI: 10.1287/isre.2022.0631
• 发表日期: 2026-03-02
• 关键词: Crowdfunding; Two-sided Market; Digital platform; Observational learning; cue diagnosticity; Panel VAR; panel-data; online; platform; cross; components; ecosystem; networks; MODEL

摘要

This study investigates how platform risk indicators and the size of the active user base shape participation in lending-based crowdfunding (LCF) markets. A key distinction between LCF platforms and other two-sided markets is heightened uncertainty, which primarily stems from concerns about platform-level financial instability. To understand how participants from both sides of the platforms navigate such uncertainty, we develop a framework grounded in observational learning and cue diagnosticity, elucidating the roles of direct signals (i.e., platform-level risk indicators), indirect signals (i.e., the size of the active user base), and their interaction in driving platform growth. We uncover three key findings by analyzing user participation data from multiple LCF platforms. First, platform risk indicators demonstrate a nuanced influence on platform growth. Whereas high loan repayment rates and substantial registered capital attract users, elevated interest rates deter them. The latter pattern indicates that risk concerns outweigh return potentials, reinforcing the high-uncertainty nature of LCF markets. Second, user size effects manifest asymmetrically. Both sides exhibit same-side participation momentum, but cross-side effects flow unidirectionally from investors to borrowers, highlighting the critical informational role of the investor base size. Third, a significant interaction exists between direct and indirect signals: when the former indicate weak platform financial stability, users rely even more on the latter. This finding implies that user base size serves as an uncertainty-reduction cue, with its informational value contingent on the uncertainty levels conveyed by various risk indicators. We discuss theoretical contributions and managerial implications.