How Do Strikes and Lockouts Affect Applications to Danish Public Service Professional Education Programs? A Synthetic Control Analysis

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Heide, Christian; Keppeler, Florian
• 署名单位: Aarhus University
• 刊物名称: PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-3298; 1467-9299
• DOI: 10.1111/padm.70053
• 发表日期: 2026-03-10
• 关键词: Denmark; labor market conflicts; public employees; SIGNALING THEORY; synthetic control design; empirical-evidence; motivation; unions; GOVERNMENT; IMPACT

摘要

With fewer young people entering public service, public employers and the corresponding trade unions aim at signaling that they offer attractive working conditions. However, in the struggle for attractive conditions, labor market conflicts occur between public employers and public sector unions when bargains fail. According to signaling theory, such conflicts could serve as negative signals and thus decrease attraction to the profession. We investigate the signaling effects of two large-scale labor market conflicts in Denmark, a nurse strike and a teacher lockout, on applications to the respective nursing and teacher education programs. For both conflicts, we employ a synthetic control design to estimate that each conflict resulted in 17%-23% fewer first-priority applications. The findings suggest that labor market conflicts function as negative signals that decrease attraction to the given career and highlight that there are hidden costs to labor market conflicts for policymakers, public employers, and public sector unions. F ae rre unge s & oslash;ger en karriere indenfor offentlig velf ae rd, hvorfor offentlige arbejdsgivere samt fagforeninger s & oslash;ger at signalere, at de tilbyder attraktive arbejdsvilk & aring;r. Imidlertid kan kampen om arbejdsvilk & aring;r f & oslash;re til arbejdsmarkedskonflikter, n & aring;r forhandlingerne bryder sammen. If & oslash;lge signalteori kan s & aring;danne konflikter fungere som negative signaler, der mindsker professionens attraktivitet. Vi unders & oslash;ger effekten af l ae rerlockouten i 2013 og sygeplejerskestrejken i 2021 p & aring; ans & oslash;gninger til hhv. l ae rer- og sygeplejerskeuddannelserne. Gennem et syntetisk kontrol-design estimerer vi, at hver konflikt resulterede i 17%-23% f ae rre f & oslash;rsteprioritetsans & oslash;gninger i & aring;ret efter konflikten. Resultaterne viser, at der er omkostninger ved arbejdsmarkedskonflikter, der kan mindske attraktionen ved en given karriere og bidrage til at f ae rre uddanner sig indenfor professionen.