Jump Contagion among Stock Market Indices: Evidence from Option Markets

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Boswijk, H. Peter; Laeven, Roger J. A.; Lalu, Andrei; Vladimirov, Evgenii
• 署名单位: University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Tilburg University; Eindhoven University of Technology
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0162-1459; 1537-274X
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2026.2635068
• 发表日期: 2026-05-16
• 关键词: C-GMM; contagion; Financial crisis; jumps; OPTION MARKETS; Spatio-temporal models; risk premia; models; volatility; continuum; implicit; price

摘要

We analyze the contagious propagation of jumps among international stock market indices, using a rich panel of high-frequency stock and options data (692,892 option contracts) over the period 2006-2015. We propose a bivariate option pricing model designed to allow for time and space amplification of jumps in option markets. We develop a semi-parametric estimation procedure, which employs a continuum of moment conditions in GMM with implied states and non-parametric high-frequency spot volatility estimation. A partial-information approach is introduced to reduce the computational complexity arising in the multivariate setting. We find statistical evidence of jump contagion both within and between stock market indices. Our results reveal that jump contagion from the United States to the United Kingdom is more pronounced than vice versa, whereas the jump contagion effects between the United States and Germany stand on equal footing. We illustrate the statistical and economic importance of capturing jump contagion for risk management, option pricing, and scenario analysis. We show that accounting for jump contagion, employing scenarios based on the Global Financial Crisis, leads to an increase of capital requirements in the United Kingdom from 6.3% to 8.4% for each unit invested. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.